【預刊】（38卷1期）財政管理機制之效果分析

Effectiveness of Fiscal Regulation Mechanisms

本研究以195個國家1990年至2020年之資料為研究對象，探討實施預算平衡規則（budget balance rule）或債限規則（debt limit rule）是否有助於改善政府財政狀況，並比較二者政策效果之差異。實證結果發現：同時實施兩種規則最能有效改善政府財政狀況，其次則為單獨採用預算平衡規則，單獨採用債限規則之效果並不顯著。此外，工具變數法（instrumental variable method）下的估計結果顯示，內生性會導致二種財政管理法則的政策效果被高估。

Using data from 195 countries for the period 1990-2020, this study examines the effectiveness of implementing budget balance and/or debt limit rules in improving governments’ fiscal position and compares the policy effects of these two rules. Our results indicate that the simultaneous implementation of the two rules is most effective in improving governments’ fiscal position, followed by the sole adoption of budget balance rules, whereas the effect of the sole adoption of debt limit rules is not significant. In addition, the estimation result of the instrumental variable method suggests that endogeneity leads to an overestimation of policy effects of these two fiscal regulation rules.