臺灣邁向超高齡社會之際，長照政策與民眾對老人照顧模式的偏好出現落差。本文運用2016與2021年「臺灣社會變遷基本調查」資料，分析民眾為自己與家人選擇四種照顧模式的決定因素。結果顯示，全面家庭照顧的支持度大幅下降，機構與混合模式的接受度上升，且為自己選擇時更明顯。教育程度愈高者愈不支持家庭照顧，孝道雖仍具影響力但已減弱。家人照顧期望與自我照顧選擇間的差距反映價值轉變與專業照顧需求增加，未來長照3.0應回應此趨勢，擴充機構資源並提升服務可近性。

As Taiwan transitions to a super-aged society, gaps are emerging between long-term care (LTC) policy and public preferences for elder care. Using data from the 2016 and 2021 Taiwan Social Change Survey, this study examines the determinants of preferences for four elder care models for oneself and family members. The findings show declining support for full-time family care and rising acceptance of institutional and mixed models, particularly for self-care. Higher education predicts lower support for family care, while filial piety remains influential but is weakening. The divergence between preferences for others and for oneself reflects shifting values and growing demand for professionalized care. As Taiwan’s LTC 3.0 entered a phased rollout beginning in September 2025 and will continue to expand service scope through 2026, these findings provide an empirical benchmark for assessing whether ongoing policy adjustments—particularly regarding institutional capacity, affordability, and hybrid community-based services—are aligned with changing public expectations.