再探極、戰爭、與理念結構：三國時代的體系穩定

Re-exploring the Polarity, War, and Ideational Structure: Stability in the Three Kingdoms Era

運用古代中國歷史的素材研究當代國際關係理論，在近年來是日益受到重視，也為在西方學界已陷入沉寂的極與體系穩定的相關理論研究，激起新的火花。同時，理念結構的作用也日益受到重視，雖非必然的決定性因素，但至少是能與物質結構競爭的另類解釋。在傳統權力平衡論下的兩極與多極之分以外，「一超型多極」與「一強型多極」概念的引入，已能化解冷戰歐洲經驗的兩極誤解，並套用到古代中國歷史之中。從此，邏輯上的下一步，就是檢視另一段也很適合進行物質與理念結構競爭解釋的時光，中國歷史上相當著名且膾炙人口的三國時代，本文將從現存古籍中做全面的考察與探索，延伸相關研究的經驗證據範疇。從中，本文發現，物質結構的解釋勝出：三國時代先是多極體系，而後是一超型多極體系，隨後演變為單極體系，體系也隨之從不穩定轉趨穩定，而後再轉趨不穩定。

The use of materials from ancient Chinese history to study contemporary international relations theory has gained increasing attention in recent years, sparking new research on polarization and system stability, which had fallen dormant in Western academia. At the same time, the role of ideational structures is also gaining increasing attention. While not necessarily a decisive factor, it is at least an alternative explanation that can compete with material structures. After the existing studies of historic periods in ancient China, the next logical step is to examine another period in Chinese history that is well-known and also well-suited to explaining the competition between material and ideational structures: The Three Kingdoms period, a period that is both well-known and widely discussed. This article conducts a comprehensive investigation of existing ancient texts, extending the theoretical scope of empirical evidence. It finds that the explanation of material structure triumphs: the system in the Three Kingdoms period was first a multipolar system, and then super-multipolar system, and evolved into a unipolar system thereafter. The system did become stable and then unstable again accordingly.