臺灣民眾在選舉期間與選後對政黨厭惡感的變動：2018年地方選舉及2020年總統選舉的比較

Changes in Citizen’s Aversion to Political Parties During and After Elections: A Comparative Study of the 2018 Local Elections and the 2020 Presidential Election in Taiwan

臺灣自2000年起，藍綠政黨間的競爭衝突不斷，激起民眾在黨性上的情感對立。其中，公職人員選舉是政黨競爭最重要的場域，政黨及候選人為求勝選，會採取各種競選策略，並透過媒體及人際網絡進行宣傳與動員。而民眾對敵我政黨的情感對立是否因此被激化？尤其是否提升對敵對政黨的厭惡感？為此，本文以臺灣2018年地方選舉及2020年總統選舉為背景，利用定群追蹤的民意調查方式，檢測民眾在政治競選期間與選舉結束後，對政黨厭惡感的變化。研究發現，中央層級的總統選舉確實會激化民眾對敵對政黨的厭惡感，但在地方層級的縣市長選舉則沒有顯著的影響效果。而對政黨厭惡感的激化，主要是受到競選期間重大議題與事件的影響，包括對兩岸統獨及罷免韓國瑜的態度。

Since 2000, Taiwan has witnessed continuous competition between pan-blue and pan-green political parties, which has stirred up an emotional confrontation among the public regarding partisanship. Indubitably, the election of public officials is the most important arena for party competition. In order to win the election, political parties and candidates will adopt various electoral campaign strategies, as well as dissemination and mobilization through the media and interpersonal networks. Does the citizen’s emotional antagonism between their own party and the opposing party intensify in the elections? In particular, does the public’s aversion to the rival political parties escalate as a result? In this paper, we will use Taiwan’s 2018 local elections and 2020 presidential elections as the background in utilizing the panel study of telephone interviews to examine the changes in people’s aversion to political parties during and after the political campaigns. It is found that the intensification effect of aversion to political parties only exists substantially in the presidential election whereas the local elections lacked obvious influence on the aversion to political parties. In addition, the intensification of aversion to political parties is mainly induced by the significant issues and events during the election period including attitudes towards unification-independence of cross-strait and the recalling of Mayor Han Kuo-yu.