危機情況下公民偏好的決策模式：期望失驗觀點的應用

Citizens’Preferences for Decision-Making Approach in Crisis Situations: An Expectancy-Disconfirmation Perspective

「危機決策」係為危機管理的關鍵，過往的研究文獻常聚焦討論於決策者的角色及領導力，而忽略了公民偏好在決策過程的重要性，且未適當闡明公民參與在危機中的角色功能。本文基於期望失驗理論的觀點，指出公民對政策的期待及對實際成果的滿足程度，會影響他們參與決策過程的意願。本研究以在危機情況期間進行的民意調查資料進行分析，研究發現，在危機情況下，公民所期待的政策優先性（經濟政策優先或是健康政策優先）與實際情況的落差，會影響決策模式偏好，公民認為政府在經濟政策的實際重視程度高於民眾所期待者，較偏好官僚中心決策途徑；相對而言，認為政府在健康政策的實際重視程度高於所期待者，則偏好公民參與決策途徑。除此之外，在危急情況下，民眾對政府的滿意度愈高則愈偏好官僚中心決策途徑。

Crisis decision-making is essential in crisis management. Previous literature has often focused on the roles of decision-makers and their leadership, neglecting the preferences of citizens in the decision-making process. Additionally, it has not adequately addressed the role of citizen participation during crises. This paper utilizes expectancy disconfirmation theory to hypothesize that the“confirmation level”between citizens’expectations of policies and the actual outcomes will impact their desired involvement in the policy process. This analysis of survey data from Taiwan reveals that in crisis situations, the confirmation level between citizens’expected policy priorities (e.g., economic or health) and the actual circumstances can affect citizen preference. Citizens who believe that the government is prioritizing economic policies better than they expected are likely to prefer decision-making approaches centered on administration. In contrast, those who feel that health policy is receiving greater emphasis than anticipated tend to favor citizen participation in decision-making. Additionally, in times of crisis, higher public satisfaction with the government is associated with a stronger preference for administrative-centered decision-making approaches.