挪威與俄羅斯關係：嚇阻與再保證政策之持續與轉變

Norway-Russia Relations: Continuity and Change of Deterrence and Reassurance

本文以挪威與俄羅斯關係為案例，探討小型國家在不對稱的安全結構中，如何保持政策彈性，確保生存發展，並維持區域穩定政策的持續與轉變。有別於純粹從小國或大國單方面的分析，本文分別從較大的一方—俄羅斯，以及較小的一方—挪威，整合分析政策的概念、標的、運作以及制約，以探討現存政策是否受到國內政治以及國際結構變化，而有所轉變與調適。本文指出，就俄羅斯的角度來看，在不對稱關係的運作中，北約才是俄羅斯最大的威脅。不對稱關係中最大的變數之一是核子武器的使用。從不對稱關係中較小一方的挪威角度來看，行之有年的對俄羅斯嚇阻與再保證政策，事實上有多重的政治意涵。由此可見，精細操作多邊與雙邊，以及內政與外交的雙重平衡，是小國挪威面對不對稱威脅的生存發展之道。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭無疑是對雙邊關係的最大挑戰。挪威與俄羅斯的互信正大幅降低。本文認為，除非戰事有戲劇化的發展，使得北歐地區在北約與俄羅斯進一步升高對峙的狀況下，全面核子武器化，不然雙方維持現狀，以及藉由嚇阻與再保證維持動態平衡的政策，仍有其韌性，但在實際操作上將面對更多的內在及外在挑戰。本文也針對挪威安全政策調整的方向、內容，以及內外壓力作一整體分析。本文最後將探討挪威政策調整的侷限，以及小國外交的前景，試圖重新勾勒挪威在面臨變局時的因應之道。

This article uses the relations between Norway and Russia as a case study to explore the flexible strategies employed by small states to ensure survival and development in international society. These strategies are reflected in Norway’s efforts to maintain policy flexibility and regional stability within an asymmetric external structure with Russia. The article begins by examining the historical evolution of their bilateral relationship, followed by an analysis of the policy shifts of the former Soviet Union and Russia. Russia views its relations with Norway as part of its broader strategy toward NATO, while Norway, a founding member of NATO, has developed deterrence and reassurance strategies to navigate the asymmetric power dynamic with Russia. Instead of a purely unilateral analysis, this article will examine the concepts, operations, and effectiveness of Norway’s deterrence and reassurance policies in both regional and international contexts. However, the outbreak of the Ukraine war has strained the long-standing mutual trust between the two nations, putting the status quo at risk. The article will explore the constraints and resilience of Norway’s deterrence and reassurance strategies in light of the shifting domestic and international environment. Through an in-depth analysis of the Norwegian-Russian case, this study aims to offer insights for future research on small state diplomacy in an evolving international landscape.