現實主義、地緣政治與俄烏戰爭

Realism, Geopolitics, and the Russo-Ukrainian War

關於俄烏戰爭的起因，學界主要存在兩種解釋：一是強調俄國帝國主義的攻勢現實主義觀點；二是強調北約東擴的守勢現實主義觀點。本文比較後發現，純粹的攻勢現實主義無法解釋普京時期俄國與多數鄰邦的和平關係；而守勢現實主義雖能說明北約東擴對俄國安全的威脅，卻未解釋烏克蘭的特殊性。為此本文引入俄國歐亞主義的地緣政治視角，呈現出烏克蘭對俄的特別意義。本文結論指出，俄國對烏克蘭的入侵，應被理解為一個具進攻能力的國家，在特定安全威脅以及歐亞主義思潮驅動下的反應，而非短期內無限擴張的開端。本研究整合物質力量、安全環境與觀念論述的分析框架，為理解俄羅斯對外行為提供了更全面的視角。

Regarding the causes of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the literature offers two dominant explanations: one emphasizing Russian imperialism from an offensive realist perspective, and the other highlighting NATO expansion from a defensive realist perspective. Through comparative analysis, this article finds that a purely offensive realist perspective cannot explain Russia’s peaceful relations with most of its neighbors during the Putin era. While defensive realism helps account for the security threat posed by NATO expansion, it struggles to explain Ukraine’s particular significance to Russia. To address this gap, the article introduces the geopolitical perspective of Russian Eurasianism, presenting the special significance of Ukraine to Russia. It concludes that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should be understood as the response of a state with offensive capabilities, reacting to specific security threats under the influence of Eurasianist thought, rather than as the beginning of a broader campaign of unlimited expansion in the short term. By integrating material capabilities, security environment, and ideational factors into an analytical framework, this study offers a more comprehensive perspective for understanding Russian foreign policy behavior.