「胡蘿蔔」策略效應：臺灣民眾對中國印象的實證分析

The Impact of“Carrot”Strategies: Taiwanese Image of China

倘若中國對於臺灣採取經濟、外交和軍事上的胡蘿蔔策略，是否能解釋臺灣民眾對於中國印象的差異？這些策略在不同時期是否會有不同的效果？作者以「印象理論」（Image Theory）作為研究架構，探討臺灣民眾是否會因為中國提供經濟利益、不限制臺灣的外交活動，以及撤除對臺灣的飛彈，而對中國產生較佳的態度，進而形塑對中國的印象。本文進一步討論在2014年兩岸關係較好和2021年兩岸關係較差的情況下，這些政策效應是否有所差異。本文採用2014年與2021年「中國印象」全國電話調查資料，藉由「有序勝算對數模型」（Ordered Logit Model）探討三種政策與中國印象的關係。實證資料顯示，無論在哪一個年度，因為中國提供臺灣更多經濟利益而對中國有更多好感的民眾，也會傾向於對中國有較好的印象，但中國不限制臺灣外交活動與撤除對臺飛彈的舉措則無法發揮效果。結果顯示，中國提供經濟利益的策略較能解釋民眾對中國印象的差異，可能原因是中國以往曾提供臺灣經濟利益，目前兩岸的經濟仍難以脫鈎，且在以兩岸統一為前提的情況下，中國較可能提供給臺灣的就是經濟利益，但不太可能放棄對臺灣的外交圍堵和軍事威脅，因此經濟利益較能解釋民眾對中國印象的差異。

If China adopts economic, diplomatic, and military strategies toward Taiwan, do these strategies explain the differences in Taiwanese people’s image of China? Do these effects vary across different periods? Using“Image Theory”as the theoretical framework, we explore whether China’s provision of economic benefits, allowance of Taiwan’s diplomatic activities without restrictions, and removal of missiles targeting Taiwan contribute to the more favorable attitude of China among the Taiwanese public and subsequently shape their image of China. We further examine whether these policies had differing effects during the relatively positive cross-strait relations in 2014 compared to the strained relations in 2021. This study utilizes the 2014 and 2021 nationwide telephone surveys of Image of China and the“Ordered Logit Model”to analyze the correlations between the three policies and the image of China. Empirical findings reveal that in both years, individuals who felt more favorable toward China due to its provision of more significant economic benefits were also more likely to hold a positive image of China. However, China’s lack of restrictions on Taiwan’s diplomatic activities and removal of missiles targeting Taiwan failed to have any effect. The results suggest that offering economic benefits best explains the differences in Taiwanese people’s image of China. We conclude that because China has previously provided Taiwan with economic benefits, cross-strait economic ties remain challenging to decouple. Furthermore, under the premise of unification, economic benefits are the most feasible concession China can offer Taiwan, as it is unlikely to ease its diplomatic containment or military threats. Hence, economic benefits best explain the differences in Taiwanese perceptions of China.