新冠疫情下的聚旗效應：多層次迴歸模型的實證分析

Transnational Rally Effects during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multilevel Analysis

本研究探討在國家發生危機時，為何有些民眾對執政者會有較高的滿意度，有些民眾卻沒有。先前文獻指出，民眾在國家面臨重大危機時，對於執政者會有較高的滿意度，反映的是一種「聚旗效應」。然而，自2020年初新冠肺炎疫情開始蔓延全球以來，關於聚旗效應的研究並沒有一致的發現。由於先前文獻大多針對單一國家的民調資料進行分析，少有研究利用跨國資料進行驗證。為了補充既有文獻的不足，本文採用跨國定群追蹤民意調查資料，建構多層次迴歸模型來驗證新冠疫情下聚旗效應的假設。本研究有三個發現：首先，當個人對疫情的恐懼感愈強，則個人愈支持執政者。其次，在因新冠肺炎死亡的人數愈高的國家，該國民眾愈支持執政者。第三，在政府防疫政策嚴格程度愈高的國家，該國民眾愈支持執政者。本研究的實證結果為聚旗效應的研究提出更細膩的分析觀點，同時也能對危機下的政治行為提供若干政策意涵。

This study aims to examine the variation in individuals’approval of their national leaders during national crises. Previous studies indicate that international crises tend to increase citizens’approval of governments and political incumbents. Such a sudden spike in public approval during times of crisis reflects the“rally-round-the-flag”effect. However, since the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, existing research on the rally effect has shown mixed results. While most studies have focused on single-country surveys, few utilize cross-national survey data. To fill the gap in the literature, this study uses cross-national panel survey data and adopts multilevel models to test hypotheses about rally effects in the COVID-19 crisis. The findings of this study are threefold. Firstly, individuals with a heightened fear of the pandemic were more likely to support their national leaders. Secondly, in countries with higher COVID-19 death tolls, citizens tended to exhibit greater support for their national leaders. Thirdly, in countries with more stringent policies to cope with the pandemic, citizens demonstrated higher levels of support for their national leaders. Overall, this study facilitates a better understanding of the rally-round-the-flag effect, and it also provides important policy implications for political behavior in times of crisis.