擔憂與憤怒：台灣民眾對中國軍事行動的情緒反應及其對盟友選擇的影響

Worried Taiwanese vs. Angry Taiwanese: Emotional Responses to Chinese Aggression and Their Impact on Ally Preferences

本研究探討台灣民眾對中國軍事施壓的情緒反應，如何影響其對美中兩國的對外結盟偏好。研究使用「台灣選舉與民主化調查」（TEDS）資料，分析「對戰爭的擔憂」與「對中國軍事行動的憤怒」這兩種情緒，在形塑民意中的不同作用。研究結果顯示，對戰爭的擔憂提升支持與中國建立更緊密關係的可能性，反映出較為保守與安撫的傾向；相對地，對中國軍事行動的憤怒則強化支持與美國結盟的偏好，並在較小程度上提升對維持等距策略的支持。進一步以三分法的結盟偏好變項進行穩健性檢驗，亦顯示一致結果。整體而言，研究突顯了情緒反應與政治認同，對於理解台灣在特殊地緣政治情境下的外交態度，具有重要解釋力。

This study examines how Taiwanese citizens’emotional responses to Chinese military aggression shape their preferences for alignment with the United States or China. Using data from the Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), it analyzes the distinct roles of worry about armed conflict and anger toward Chinese military actions in influencing public attitudes. The results show that worry about war increases the likelihood of supporting closer ties with China, suggesting an accommodating stance, while anger toward the PLA motivates stronger preferences for alignment with the United States and, to a lesser extent, equidistance. A robustness check using a trichotomous measure of ally preference confirms these patterns. These findings underscore the importance of emotional responses and political identity in shaping foreign policy attitudes within Taiwan’s unique geopolitical context.