政府該作教育計畫嗎？以跨國縱貫資料分析臺灣的高等教育在學率為例

Should Governments Make an Educational Plan? Evidence from Taiwan's Higher Education Enrollment Rate Using Cross-National Longitudinal Data

政府是否需要進行高等教育規劃是一個具爭議議題。本研究首先釐清教育計畫的支持與反對派觀點；其次運用1970年至2023年世界銀行與臺灣超過100個國家資料，分析全球高等教育發展趨勢，提出臺灣高等教育規劃方向。結論如下：（一）在「政府是否應教育計畫」論辯中，教育部門仍有教育計畫之必要；（二）臺灣高等教育自由化之後，明顯出現過量教育。1970年臺灣高等教育在學率低於各國平均發展趨勢0.41%；1990、1995、2000、2010、2020與2023年分別超過2.48%、5.48%、16.09%、27.83%、20.63%、21.98%，顯示2000年後過量嚴重，反映出缺乏前瞻規劃；（三）依跨國實證模型推估，若臺灣人口成長率為0.0%、中等教育在學率為100.0%，當國民所得達34,000美元，高等教育在學率之合理值為64.7%；在45,000美元為66.9%；在60,000美元方可達69.9%。2023年臺灣高等教育在學率為90.30%，顯示除學齡人口自然減少之外，政府應積極提出縮減方案，避免衍生更多問題。

Whether governments should plan education for higher education has always been a controversial issue. This article first clarified the viewpoints supporting and opposing education planning. Secondly, using data from more than 100 countries including the World Bank and Taiwan from 1970 to 2023, we analyze global higher education development trends and propose the direction of Taiwan's higher education planning. The conclusions were as follows: (1) In the debate over whether the government should plan education, the education sector still needs to do so; (2) Taiwan's liberalization of higher education has clearly led to an oversupply of education. In 1970, Taiwan's higher education enrollment rate was 0.41% below the average global growth trend. In 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2023, it exceeded 2.48%, 5.48%, 16.09%, 27.83%, 20.63%, and 21.98%, respectively. This indicated a significant oversupply after 2000, reflecting a lack of forward-looking planning. (3) Based on a cross-national empirical model, if Taiwan's population growth rate was 0.0% and its secondary education enrollment rate was 100.0%, the ideal higher education enrollment rate would be 64.7% when the national income reached US$34,000; 66.9% when the income reaches US$45,000; and 69.9% when the income reached US$60,000. Taiwan's higher education enrollment rate is approximately 90.30% in 2023, suggesting that in addition to the natural decline in the school age population, the government should proactively propose policies to reduce the amount of higher education to prevent the overdispersion of higher education resources, the decline in quality, and the resulting problems.