中美冷和平下台海「去島鏈化」的思考

Reflections on “De-island Chaining” in the Taiwan Strait under the “Cold Peace” between China and the US

當前中美關係處於「競合」狀態，進入「對峙」「不友好」階段，台灣社會瀰漫中美雙方已邁入「新冷戰」的氛圍，亦即形成意識形態鬥爭、地線政治競争與經濟競合關係。學者多伊爾（Michael W. Doyle）對此提出不同觀點，認為當前國際局勢相對穩定、中美雙方經貿與人文交流依舊頻繁，雖具有敵意但處於可控狀態，這般「穩定但無互信」狀態稱又為「冷和平」（Cold Peace）。在「冷和平」架構下，長期被歸為「第一島鏈」前沿地帶的台灣，被美國當成過制中國崛起的重要施力點。因此，現階段追求務實台獨路線的台灣執政者，其「抗中保台」政策自能迎合美國的需求，但卻使台灣承受日益升高的沖突風險與地域競競争壓力。
本文檢視「冷和平」架構下兩岸關係的定位問題，並認為台灣有必要朝「去島鏈化」方向調整戰略。事實上，「第一島鏈」所屬的安全結構限縮台灣自身戰略彈性，反而讓自身處於中美地緣政治上被動角色。本文認為在「冷和平」架構下共同防禦的不確定與盟友間的不信任，台灣應逐步弱化對島鏈結構依賴，主動舒緩當今兩岸局勢。「去島鏈化」不僅是戰略選擇，更是維繫和平與確保台灣自主的關鍵。

At present, Sino-US relations are in a state of ''competition'', entering the stage of ''confrontation'' and ''unfriendliness'', and Taiwanese society is filled with an atmosphere that China and the United States have entered a ''new Cold War'', and the two major countries have formed ideological struggles, geopolitical competition and economic competition. In this regard, scholar Michael W. Doyle put forward a different view, believing that the current international situation is relatively stable, and economic, trade and people-to-people exchanges between China and the United States are still frequent. Under the ''cold peace'' framework, Taiwan, which has long been classified as the ''first island chain'', is at the forefront and is regarded as an important fulcrum to contain China's rise. Against the backdrop of continued tensions between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan's current rulers are generally happy to continue to deepen relations with the United States to ensure regional security and stability. However, this strategy is exposing Taiwan to increasing conflict risks and geocompetitive pressures.
This article examines the issue of repositioning cross-strait relations under the framework of ''cold peace'', and considers ''re-island chaining'' and ''de-island chaining'' as necessary directions for Taiwan's strategic adjustment. The security structure of the ''first island chain'' actually limits Taiwan's own strategic flexibility, but puts itself in a passive role in the geopolitics between China and the United States. This article argues that under the ''cold peace'' framework, due to the uncertainty of common defense and distrust among allies, Taiwan should gradually weaken its dependence on the island chain structure and take the initiative to alleviate the current cross-strait situation. ''De-island chaining'' is not only a strategic choice, but also the key to maintaining peace and ensuring Taiwan's independence.