臺灣地區核能政策支持度之空間效應分析：2018和2021年公民投票的實證

An Analysis of Spatial Effects on Support for Nuclear Energy Policy in Taiwan: Evidence from the 2018 and 2021 Referendums*

於我國核能政策的高度政治性以及空間效應，本文針對2018年第16案「以核養綠」以及2021年第17案「重啟核四」的公民投票結果，運用「空間杜賓模型」（Spatial Durbin Model），探討臺灣地區的核能政策支持度的空間效應，以及還有哪些非空間因素會影響核能政策支持度。研究結果發現：臺灣地區的核能政策支持度確實存有顯著的空間效應，而且地區的政治取向也是影響核能政策支持度的顯著因素，且影響程度有升高的現象，核能政策的倡議不能忽略空間效應與政治極化的影響。

This paper aims to investigate support for nuclear energy policy in Taiwan and to examine the factors influencing such support by utilizing the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). This is a spatial econometric model that accounts for spatial dependencies in the data. We used district-level support data from the 2018 and 2021 referendums to build a theoretical model to examine the spatial effects on support for nuclear energy policy, as well as the influence of non-spacial variables. The 2018 and 2021 estimation results indicate that both spatial effects and political orientation were significant factors. Additionally, political orientation significantly influences the degree of policy support. The findings directly indicate that the spatial effects and political polarization of support for nuclear energy policy cannot be neglected, and this study could inform the Taiwanese government’s energy policy decisions.