臺海合作或衝突對中國新一輪發展的影響

The Impact of Cooperation or Confrontation between Two Sides of Taiwan Strait for China’s New Development Strategies

中國大陸正以「一帶一路」宏觀戰略指導原則，經由陸路結合中亞國家、經由海路偕同東盟國家，積極向西、向南拓展，並分享其過去三十年改革開放、經濟發展之經驗與成果。同時藉由創設亞洲基礎建設投資銀行等作為，也對不在「一帶一路」沿線之國家充分開放機會，使其得以具體參與、共享利益。施行中的「國民經濟和社會發展第十三次五年計畫」則努力為「一帶一路」大戰略提供穩定的內部基礎，目標瞄準將中國大陸全面建成小康社會，以及追求中華民族的偉大復興。這樣的新一輪發展，將使中國真正蛻變成為面向全球、足與美國分庭抗禮主導國際新秩序的超強大國。
在此中國新一輪發展過程中，臺灣正好第三次政黨輪替由民進黨再次執政，臺海兩岸關係出現變化與若干困境，彼此溝通聯繫、資訊掌握及對狀況的分析判斷都遭遇瓶頸。理論與實務上中國大陸可以不必理會臺灣與臺海問題，逕行「一帶一路」新一輪發展之進程。然而情感上因為追求中華民族之偉大復興不能不顧及臺灣，理性思維則力圖避免臺海衝突，以免在開展對鄰近國家友好關係、企圖建立世界新秩序之時，引發國際社會疑慮。因此，將臺灣納入區域架構戰略新思維裡，並對臺採取和平包容克制策略，才是中國在全球及區域角色扮演的最佳選項。
臺灣方面儘管政府管道難以取得參與亞投行或「一帶一路」工程之機會，民間企業卻必須為自身永續發展，採取更靈活的多方策略積極參與，且必須拋棄過去冀望大陸惠臺政策給予特殊待遇之心態，扎實而平常地以資金、技術、服務、經驗等，換取合理的分潤與機會。政府則另應妥慎處理「一帶一路」必經之東海與南海上，均有臺灣可扮演關鍵微妙角色的釣魚島與太平島等問題，戒慎靈活地在美中兩大國當中，力圖避免誤解引發衝突，如此才能穩定臺海和平並爭取最大利益以求持續發展。

China is now promoting and undergoing its new turn of development with a great strategy named“Belt and Road”, which is financially supported by AIIB, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiated by Beijing. This“Belt and Road”strategy invites mainly the middle Asian countries and ASEAN members to modernize their infrastructures by collaborating with China and sharing China’s development experiences. That will make China become a real new superpower in the World.
On proceeding this great strategy, China could ignore the Taiwan issue as Taiwan’s geopolitical position is now less important than ever. Nonetheless, under nationalism and rational decision-making, China should maintain the peace with Taiwan and have to put Taiwan within its regional strategy, at least for showing the neighbors its determination to not only be big, but also be great.
Looking back at Taiwan, it’s hard for the government to play a critical role and participate in the“Belt and Road”strategy. Therefore, the private sector should take up more responsibilities with aggressive participation in the“Belt and Road”projects, in order to assure collaboration and peace between two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Contribute as a normal participant and find the wisdom in dealing with China and US is the only way for Taiwan to sustain and to develop.