國家的教育年數發展及其類型之探索：2000～2020年的縱貫觀察

Exploration of the Development of Years of Education and Its Types in Countries: A Longitudinal Study From 2000 to 2020

現有之人力資本與經濟發展研究較少探討各國教育年數的發展趨勢。本研究從聯合國開發署（United Nations Development Programme, 2021）及世界銀行（World Bank, 2021）取得2000～2020年173個國家及臺灣的資料，以每隔五年分析174個國家的預期壽命、國民所得、人口成長率對教育年數預測，以及對國家教育發展分類，透過分析的結論顯示：一、2000～2020年間，174個國家每隔五年的教育年數各為6.77年、7.36年、7.89年、8.37年、8.87年，大致為每五年增加0.5年。每隔五年的預期壽命與國民所得對於教育年數為正向顯著影響，而人口成長率對於教育年數有負向顯著影響，這20年的預期壽命對於教育年數的重要性隨著時間推移而提高，以2005年國民所得對教育年數影響的重要性最大，隨後年度則減少；然而人口成長率對於教育年數的影響重要性隨著年代往後推移而有減少趨勢。二、以174個國家的預期壽命、國民所得和人口成長率對教育年數預測值分為教育年數過量閒置、教育年數過量安置、教育年數不足與低用、教育年數不足與善用的國家，分別各有72個、18個、27個、57個，其中前兩類為教育過量國家，後兩類為教育投資不足國家，臺灣則列為教育年數過量閒置國家。三、2020年臺灣的國民所得為28,549美元，教育年數只要10.95年就與世界發展水準相當，但實際上卻有11.20年，若以此教育年數，國民所得應達到30,811美元，但臺灣的國民所得卻較世界平均水準少了2,262美元；臺灣在教育年數過量之現象下，無法符應經濟發展需求。本研究特色在於縱貫分析174個國家的教育年數之發展，並以經濟發展水準區分四種類型國家，認為各國應針對不同人力資本類型投資。

Existing research on human capital and economic development seldom explored the development trend of years of education in countries. This study obtained data from 173 countries and Taiwan from 2000 to 2020 from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP, 2021) and the World Bank (2021), and analyzed 174 countries every five years respectively. The country's life expectancy, per capital income, population growth rate and the years of education forecast, as well as the classification of national education development, the conclusions of the regression analysis showed that: 1. From 2000 to 2020, the years of education in 174 countries every five years were 6.77, 7.36, 7.89, 8.37, and 8.87 years, roughly increasing by 0.5 years every five years. The life expectancy and life expectancy of 174 countries every five years per capital income had a positive and significant impact on the number of years of education, while the population growth rate had a negative and significant impact on the number of years of education. The importance of the 20-year life expectancy to the number of years of education has increased over time, while the importance of the impact of per capital income on years of education was highest in 2005, and then decreased in subsequent years; however, the impact of population growth rate on years of education tended to decrease as the years went by. 2. Based on the life expectancy, per capital income and population growth rate of 174 countries, the predicted value of years of education can be divided into excessive years of education and idleness, excessive years of education for resettlement, low number of years of education and low used, and low number of years of education for good. There were 72, 18, 27, and 57 countries in each category. Among them, the first two categories were countries with over-education, the latter two categories were countries with insufficient investment in education, and Taiwan is listed as a country with over-education years of education. 3. In 2020, Taiwan's per capital income was US$28,549, and the number of years of education was only 10.95 years, which can be comparable to the world's development level, but there were only 11.20 years. If this number of years of education is used, the per capital income should reach US$30,811, but Taiwan was less the world average was $2,261. Taiwan's excessive number of years of education cannot meet the needs of economic development. The feature of this study was the longitudinal analysis of the development of years of education in 174 countries, and distinguishes four types of countries from economic development. Countries should invest in different types of human capital.