從現實主義「權力平衡」觀點看印尼外交政策的轉變

An Analysis of Transformation of Indonesia’s Foreign Policy from Perspective of“Balance of Power”in Realism

印尼擁有逾2.8億人口，是全球第四大人口國，也是東南亞地區最大的民主國家。由於地緣政治因素，印尼必須在國際情勢變局中積極調整政策以平衡國際權力的發展，其外交政策的轉變是研究現實主義「權力平衡」的最佳範式之一。本文以現實主義的「權力平衡」概念分析，並從印尼文文獻出發，探討印尼自1945年獨立建國至今外交政策的轉變；首先介紹「權力平衡」概念，再闡述由兩強主導的國際權力格局，接續就印尼各政府階段，以「權力平衡」觀點分析印尼外交政策主軸及轉變。
本文發現，印尼的外交政策在不同政府階段詮釋了「權力平衡」不同的概念。在冷戰時期，印尼一方面以亞非會議做為對已開發國家「權力平衡」的平臺，另一方面卻企圖組織新興力量，然卻未果，顯示此時的「權力平衡」是一種「情勢」。冷戰結束後，印尼推動成立東協組織，積極平衡東西方勢力，「權力平衡」成為一種「體系」。21世紀，印尼更運用「戰略夥伴關係」做為動態平衡與重要國家關係之政策工具，在制衡對方行為的同時，又保有自己戰略自主性，「權力平衡」是一種「政策」。結論是，印尼外交政策的轉變是諸多權力因素與戰略考量的結果，面對未來的變局與挑戰，印尼必須基於過往的經驗，提出更靈活、平衡與韌性的外交政策。

With a population of more than 280 million, Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world and the largest democracy in Southeast Asia. Due to geopolitical factors, Indonesia has to actively adjust its policies to balance the changing development of power in the international stage. The transformation of Indonesia’s foreign policy is one of the best paradigms to analyze the theory of“Balance of Power, BOP”in Realism. This article uses the concept of BOP to explore the changes of Indonesia’s foreign policy since its independence in 1945 from Indonesian perspective; firstly reviews the theory of BOP, explains the international power structure dominated by two Great Powers, then analyzes the principles and changes of Indonesia’s foreign policies in different periods of governments from the perspective of BOP.
This article finds that Indonesia’s foreign policies in different periods of governments explain different concepts of BOP. During the Cold War, Indonesia used the Asian-African Conference as a platform to balance the forces of the developed countries, but failed to create new emerging forces, indicating that at that time BOP is a“situation.”After the end of the Cold War, Indonesia utilized the establishment of ASEAN to actively balance the Eastern and the Western strength, at that time BOP is a“system.”In the 21st century, Indonesia has used“Strategic Partnership”as a policy tool to dynamically balance the relations with other important countries. By doing so, Indonesia can constrain those countries’behaviors, while maintains its autonomy in making strategies, BOP is a“policy.”In conclusion, the transformation of Indonesia’s foreign policy is a result of consideration of many power factors and strategies; in order to deal with future changes and challenges, Indonesia has to learn from its past experience to develop more flexible, balanced, and resilient foreign policies.