菲律賓為何轉變對中政策？以新古典現實主義理論析之

Why Did the Philippines Shift Its China Policy？Based on Neoclassical Realism Theory

菲律賓自2022年新任小馬可仕政府上台後，旋即轉變前杜特蒂政府的對中政策基調，採取更為強硬的立場抗衡來自中國的威脅。本文旨在釐清菲國政府為何在這麼短的時間內快速地轉變外交路線，並以國際關係新古典現實主義理論作為典範主軸進行分析。本文發現菲律賓政治、經濟、社會等國內因素與國際體系壓力相互作用，導致不同時期菲國政府對中國的挑戰採取不同的因應策略。這些因素隨著時間的演變，使菲律賓逐漸改變對中國的認知，進而導致對中政策產生轉變。本研究也藉由菲律賓的個案研究，在理論上進一步闡明國內因素在分析各國外交政策研究當中的關鍵之處。

Since Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office in the Philippines in 2022, Philippines government has quickly shifted its China policy, adopting a more assertive stance compared to the previous Duterte administration. This paper explores the rapid change in the Philippines’foreign policy, applying the neoclassical realist theory of international relations. By analyzing the historical trajectory of Philippines-China relations, this research highlights how domestic political, economic, and social factors interact with international pressures to shape foreign policy decisions of Marcos administration. These dynamics have influenced successive administrations’strategies in addressing challenges posed by China. Over time, evolving domestic and systemic factors have reshaped the Philippines’perception of China, prompting adjustments in its policy. Furthermore, this research leverages the Philippine case study to theoretically elucidate the crucial role of domestic variables in the analysis of states' foreign policies.