台灣原住民投票率的大規模探索性分析

It’s Not That Simple: A Large-scale Explorative Analysis of Indigenous People’s Voter Turnout in Taiwan

本研究針對台灣2016年和2020年總統及立法委員選舉，以及2018年地方選舉和公投的個別投票數據進行大規模分析，以三種方式深入研究原住民的投票行為。首先，我們挑戰認為原住民選民投票率低於非原住民選民的傳統觀點。其次，我們比較高山族和低山族選民之間的投票率差異。最後，我們分析不同類型選票（全國和地方選舉以及公投）的投票變化。與國際和國內普遍觀點相反，我們發現原住民選民在投票行為上表現出多樣性和動態性，這種多樣性不僅在與漢族選民的比較中顯現，也在原住民群體內部以及不同類型選舉的互動中體現出來。

This explorative study employs a large-scale analysis of individual turnout data from the 2016 and 2020 presidential and legislative elections, alongside the 2018 local elections and referenda in Taiwan, to advance our understanding of Indigenous voting behaviour in three ways. Firstly, we challenge the conventional wisdom that Indigenous voters exhibit lower turnout rates compared to the non-Indigenous electorate. Secondly, we further compare turnout differences among Highland and Lowland voters. Lastly, we analyse turnout variations across different types of ballots: national and local elections and referendum bills. Contrary to prevailing international and domestic norms, we provide strong empirical evidence that Indigenous voters are diverse and dynamic in their voting behaviours, and this diversity extends not only in comparison to the Han voters but also within the Indigenous population, interacting with the different types of elections.