「一帶一路」倡議的國際參與及現實挑戰：案例檢討與理論反思

International Development of the PRC ''Belt and Road'' Initiative：A Theoretical Analysis of Its Limitations

中國大陸的「一帶一路」倡議自2013年提出後，已在沿線138個國家陸續開展，參與國甚眾，其影響層面從基礎建設到文化交流與文明互動，既廣泛而深遠，但也產生了不少新問題。本文將以相關的國際組織為核心，探討「一帶一路」在不同地區的推展進程，並分析其中的具體案例，檢討相關的核心議題，以及面臨的主要困難之所在，以掌握其發展、限制與困境。
本文研究的核心問題是：在國家發展與國際援助的相關研究中，不同於「現代化論」與「依賴理論」，中國的「一帶一路」倡議代表著一種新的思維進路和發展途徑，其主要方向與重點，與前二者有何不同？目前面臨那些問題與挑戰？有何理論觀點可以修正和補充前二者？
本文主要採案例分析與比較途徑，以五大國際組織為核心，針對金磚國家、中國－中東歐國家經貿論壇、上海合作組織、非洲聯盟和東協各國進行探討；藉由國際合作與區域發展經驗，分析「一帶一路」倡議與沿線各國的互動經驗；以及目前面臨的困境與考驗，進行反思。

The“Belt and Road Initiative”has been activated since 2013. Until recently, over 138 countries worldwide participated in this global-perspective international program. In this article, we will make a comprehensive analysis of international impact of the Initiative, according to the framework of regional organizations and geopolitical context. A comparison of the modernization theory, dependency theory and the“Belt and Road Initiative”will be discussed.
Further analysis of various cases will be concentrated on these organizations and countries: 1). The BRICS; 2). The China-Central European Economic Forum; 3). The Shanghai Cooperative Organization; 4). The African Union; 5). Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
As a conclusion, the limits and shortcomings of the Initiative would be discussed in the context of international participation and the Chinese way of government intervention. The future of the Initiative will be analyzed. Tianxia and Wangdao—the traditional Chinese concept towards outside world should be brought out and manifested as key components of theory of analysis. It is not only important to push forward the development of“the Belt and Road”, but also evident of the Renaissance of the Great Chinese Culture in the next few decades.