世界格局重組下的兩岸關係

World Order Reshuffling and Its Impact on Cross-Strait Relations

本論文擬從世界與印太格局之大變動，析論中美全面對抗、俄烏戰爭與裴洛希訪台引發的圍台軍演催生的秩序重整，檢視後冷戰秩序終結與新世界秩序如何展開，進而影響兩岸關係，並希望藉此分析世局變動，探索兩岸關係趨吉避凶之可能，擬提出若干超越定見的看法，希望繞過兩岸關係的僵局，激活民間思考如何避免戰爭與創造和平。

This paper sketches an emerging picture of a post-post-Cold War order. Three factors have contributed and accelerated the order transition: the US-China full-scaled confrontation, Russia-Ukraine War and the cross-strait crisis in the wake of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. It contends that the post-cold war world order is in the wane and multiple power centers are on the rise, in which the China-led order is the most spectacular and influential one. All the three power-shifting events are reshaping relations across the Taiwan Strait. In face with the escalating tensions between mainland China and Taiwan, some policy suggestions based on the unconventional wisdom are proposed in the hope of overcoming stalemate and seeking peace consensus in Taiwan.