後冷戰時代美國外交政策師法孟子？——「無敵國外患者，國恆亡」

American Foreign Policies Learning from Mencius in the Post-Cold War Era? －“If a nation doesn’t have foreign enemies to harass, it will perish.”

本文的好奇，始於關先生書中不時出現美國需要找個敵人之命題，聯想到孟子「無敵國外患者，國恆亡」之說法，試圖聳動一些的用「師法」二字，來質疑美國於孟子二千多年後，才提出類似觀點的來源；作者自知應該是個「虛無假設」。兩者「神」是「離」的，因兩者提出「國需有敵說」的背景情境，面對的國際局勢，所處的政治體制及所言的標的目的，已近天淵之別；何以二者仍共享此「貌合」之說？本文試著以較客觀的「鯰魚效應」及「理性目的論」來稍事填補對此「未知」的黑洞。至於「國需有敵說」，可否成為通則，本文粗淺的判斷是「不可」。
最後，本文提醒以美國冷戰後外交策略定位為「國需有敵」，與孟子類似說法相比較，是提供了一種觀察視角，但也限制了許多其他可能的想像、比較，或分析的視角，尚祈各方諒察及指教。

The curiosity of this article begins with the proposition that the United States needs to find an enemy from time to time in Mr. Guan's book. It is associated with Mencius' statement that ''if a nation doesn’t have foreign enemies to harass, it will perish'', trying to stir up some doubts by using the word ''learning.'' This is because the United States did not put forward the source of her finding enemy policy, but that looks so similar to Mencius’s idea appeared more than two thousand years ago. The author knew that it should be a ''null hypothesis''. The ''essence'' of the two statements should be ''discrepant'', because the background situation of the“a nation needs enemies theory'' put forward by the two nations, the international situation they are facing, the political system they are in, and the direction they say are almost worlds apart. Why do the two nations still share the similar way of saying? This article tries to fill in the black hole of ''unknown'' with the more objective ''catfish effect'' and ''rational teleology''. As for whether ''the theory of a nation needs enemies'' can become a general rule, a tentative judgment of this article is ''no''.
Finally, this article reminds us that the post-Cold War diplomatic strategy of the United States is defined as ''a nation needs enemies''. Compared with Mencius's similar statement, it provides a perspective of observation but also limits many other possible perspectives of imagination, comparison, or analysis. The author begs for the understanding and advice of all parties.