霸權弱化與裂解中的世界秩序

Weakened Hegemony and the Fracture of the World Order

俄烏戰爭開打近一年半，中美權力交鋒由貿易戰、經濟戰、科技戰、外交戰逐步升級為全面開戰。中國大陸反守為攻，進入突圍新階段，也將舊世界秩序推向巨變。隨著中國成功調解沙烏地與伊朗關係，習近平緊接著訪問俄國，中美兩國在俄烏戰場進入「戰爭與和平」的較量。「後冷戰單極體系」告終，後後冷戰秩序進入多重勢力並存格局，全球政治與經濟架構隨之裂解破碎化。
不同於西方視角，本論文提出以下觀點，第一，與中俄挑戰同時發生的巨變是二次戰後美國秩序的加速弱化，而二戰後長達七十年的世界秩序之弱化則是自毀的過程。第二，美國秩序內生了四個層面的治理赤字，伴隨著西方的戰略慣性與盲點，反噬大局。第三，面對世界秩序的裂解，中國大陸善用東方智慧因應，選擇與全球南方為伍，共謀互利。對比於冷戰思維是一種「東西對抗」的橫向矛盾，中國大陸另闢蹊徑，取徑「南北矛盾」，以「區域連橫」裂解美歐合縱戰線。第四，巨變中的世界秩序朝向「多元化」與「破碎化」發展，是否真正邁入「多極化」秩序，仍有諸多變數，故將迎接一段多重秩序層疊交錯、權力激烈競逐與混沌複雜動態的過渡期。

The Ukraine War is being prolonged since one and half year ago. US-China power competition on trade, technology and diplomacy has escalated into near rivalry. The so-called post-Cold war world order is faced with fracture and fragmentation. As China successfully brought Saudi Arabia and Iran into reconciliation, China takes a peace-making role not only in the Middle East, but between Russia and Ukraine. In line with a non-western perspective, this paper proposes the following arguments: First, the more than 70 years of US order is mostly weakened by its inner evolution. The challenges from China and Russia are less significant cause of it. Second, four kinds of deficits on global public goods, trust, institutions, and multilateralism give rise to the weakening of US order. Third, China is good at turning crisis into opportunities by siding with the Global South, who remained neutral in either Ukraine war or US-China competition. The North-South cleavage is cleverly maneuvered as regional autonomy becomes a wedge to unravel the unified front of western insolation. Fourth, the current world order is heading the direction of“pluralization”and“fragmentation”if not a clear-cut“polarization.”What lies ahead is dynamic process of transition into multiple orders in coexistence, which is not a linear process of changes. Uncertainties and chaos will be the defining feature of this transition.