「戰爭」還是「種族滅絕」？十月七日事件及後續效應之分析

“War”or“Genocide”？An Analysis of the October 7 Incident and Its Aftermath

2023年10月7日，哈瑪斯對以色列的襲擊引發國際社會的強烈譴責。西方政府與聲援者主張與以色列站在同一陣線，並認為消滅哈瑪斯是唯一的選項。然而，隨著以色列展開強烈的軍事報復，加薩陷入嚴重的人道危機，國際輿論逐漸出現分歧。2025年1月19日，以色列與哈瑪斯的停火協議正式生效，在此之前，不少文獻對戰爭的性質及對未來局勢的預判已有廣泛的討論，但對於哈瑪斯襲擊的動機是否如外界所言，主要是破壞以色列與阿拉伯國家的「關係正常化」，以避免自身遭到孤立？其次，學界與媒體對10月7日事件後續發展，究竟為單純戰爭性質還是種族滅絕，尚未達成共識。本文將透過英文及阿拉伯文獻，聚焦於此兩項問題。

On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israel, triggering widespread condemnation from the international community. Western governments and their supporters regarded supporting Israel and eliminating Hamas as the only justifiable course of action. However, Israel’s intense military retaliation created a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, causing significant divisions in global public opinion. A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect on January 19, 2025. Numerous studies have discussed the war and future predictions, yet the motivations behind Hamas' attack were seldom explored in detail. Was the attack, as widely speculated, primarily intended to disrupt Israel’s“normalization”of relations with Arab states to prevent its isolation? Moreover, academic and media discourses remain divided on whether the subsequent developments following the October 7 incident should be seen as conventional war or as genocide. This study uses English and Arabic sources to address these two critical questions.