台灣縱火者靜態再犯風險評估量表之建立研究

The Establishment Study for Taiwan Arson Static Recidivism Risk Assessment Scale

縱火往往造成重大的人命與財產損失，因此各國皆需積極防範。然而目前尚無針對縱火犯的風險評估量表可供使用。本研究旨在建立一套靜態縱火犯再犯風險評估量表。本研究從台灣消防署的資料庫中蒐集了226名研究對象，時間跨度為4.5年，平均追蹤期間為12.3年。研究結果發現，再犯率為17.7%，並有六項風險變項與再犯顯著相關，分別為：犯罪多樣性、過去玩火經驗、精神疾患、縱火次數、滯留現場的習慣，以及藥物濫用史。該風險評估量表在一年的、五年的與十年的追蹤期間中，其預測效度ROC值分別為0.785、0.912與0.965，屬於高預測效度之量表。

Arson often causes heavy loss of life and property, which requires active prevention by all countries. So far, there is no risk assessment scale for use. The purpose of this study is to establish a static recidivism risk assessment scale for arsonists. In this study, 226 participants were collected from the database in Taiwan Fire Department among 4.5 years, with an average tracking period of 12.3 years. It was found the recidivism rate is 17.7% and six risk variables were significantly associated to it. They included criminal diversity, past experience of playing with fire, mental disorder, number of arson, habit of staying at the scene, and history of drug abuse. The ROC (Responsive Operative Characteristic ) values of the Risk Assessment Scale for the one-year, five-year and ten-year follow-up periods were calculated to be 0.785, 0.912 and 0.965, respectively. It is a high predictive validity scale.