緬甸軍事政變下的國家安全危機：國內及國際面向分析

The National Security Crisis Under Myanmar’s Military Coup: An Analysis of International and Domestic Dimensions

2021年2月1日，緬甸軍方，緬甸國防軍發動政變，推翻了由全國民主聯盟領導的民選政府，迅速拆解自2011年以來建立的民間治理結構。軍方隨後對和平抗議和公民抵抗的暴力鎮壓，迅速將衝突升級為全國範圍的內戰。這不僅重燃了緬甸國防軍與民族武裝組織之間長期以來的衝突，也激發了整個社會不同群體的革命動員浪潮。緬甸因此陷入了大規模的混亂，其特徵是日益激烈的武裝衝突、普遍的暴力和日益加劇的人道危機。民主化的崩潰與國家能力的衰退、公共服務的瓦解以及人類苦難的激增相伴隨。本文對政變後緬甸的安全與人道危機進行全面的評估與分析，並探討內戰的國內外層面。

On February 1, 2021, Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, staged a coup that ousted the democratically elected government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD), abruptly dismantling the civilian governance structure established since 2011. The military’s subsequent violent crackdown on peaceful protests and civil resistance rapidly escalated the conflict into a nationwide civil war. This not only reignited long-standing clashes between the Tatmadaw and ethnic armed organizations but also sparked a wave of revolutionary mobilization across diverse segments of society. Consequently, the country has descended into widespread chaos characterized by intensifying armed conflict, pervasive violence, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. The collapse of democratization has coincided with the erosion of state capacity, the breakdown of public services, and a surge in human suffering. This essay offers a comprehensive assessment and analysis of Myanmar’s security and humanitarian crisis in the aftermath of the coup, examining both the domestic and international dimensions of the ongoing civil war.