政府部門流域治理之氣候變遷相關災害調適行為與調適力影響因素：以基隆河流域為例

Determinants of Adaptation Behavior and Adaptive Capacity in Governmental River Basin Governance in Response to Climate Change and Related Disasters in the Keelung River Basin

許多國家推動流域綜合治理（Integrated River Basin Governance），以面對氣候變遷與極端天氣，對河川流域水環境治理與災害風險管理帶來之嚴峻挑戰。本文主要目的乃整合流域調適治理（Adaptive Governance）、韌性（Resilience）概念與調適力（Adaptive Capacity）理論，應用焦點團體、專家深度訪談、問卷調查與多變量分析，提出「政府部門流域治理調適行為與調適力影響因素架構」，透過基隆河流域案例，探討政府部門利害相關者（Stakeholders）推動流域綜合治理的運作過程，及檢視影響調適行為與調適力的重要因素。分析結果，發現基隆河流域治理，仍是以中央主導與「由上而下」的計劃調適為主要運作模式。然中央政策與法令指導、資訊提供與治理資源分配，仍不足以推動流域綜合治理工作。其尚需誘導治理單位自我組織與彈性化、協力合作與決策參與，藉由「由下而上」自主調適的輔助，方能提升調適力。藉由本研究發現，可改善對於流域綜合治理推動過程的瞭解，及提出降低氣候變遷與相關災害風險調適力的可行策略。

Numerous countries promote integrated river basin governance to address the challenges related to the water environment and disaster risk management in the face of emerging threats from climate change and extreme weather disasters. This article explores the integrated governance process within a river basin using a transdisciplinary methodology that combines focus groups, in-depth expert interviews, questionnaire surveys, and multivariate analysis. Based on theories of adaptive governance, resilience, and adaptive capacity, this study aims to elucidate the roles of governmental agencies in river basin management. Furthermore, it examines the critical factors shaping the adaptive capacity and adaptation behaviors of government departments. Based on a survey in Keelung River Basin in Taiwan, the results show that the river basin governance predominantly follows a‘top-down’hierarchical structure, with planned adaptation initiatives primarily led by the central government. However, relying solely on policy and legal guidance and providing information and resources is insufficient in effectively implementing river basin governance. It needs to be complemented by the factors such as self-organization, flexibility, collaborative cooperation, and stakeholder engagement. These supplementary elements can encourage‘bottom-up’autonomous adaptation and enhance adaptive capacities. Our findings can contribute to a better understanding of the implementation process of integrated river basin governance and offer practical strategies to strengthen the adaptive capacity of the river basins in reducing climate change and related disaster risks.