新冠肺炎對台灣金控業異常報酬的影響：事件分析法之研究

The Impact of Covid-19 on Taiwan’s Financial Holding Companies: An Analysis of Event Study

自2019年底開始，新冠肺炎疫情對全球經濟發展造成明顯影響。由一開始新冠肺炎病毒的發現，到全球的大流行，乃至於台灣升為三級警戒，台灣疫情也隨著不同時間點逐漸升高。本研究將Covid-19期間選取三個具代表性之事件，利用事件分析法（Event Study）研究台灣金控業的異常報酬表現，並進一步以迴歸模型分析其影響因子。研究結果顯示，國內確診人數成長率相較國外越高，對金控業異常報酬有負向影響。此外，金控之壽險子公司由於海外投資部位之不確定性，將使投資人對該金控信心越低，而美國的財政政策及資本市場變動亦影響我國投資人對壽險業之經營信心。最後，疫情對金控業之股價影響無法於短時間被市場吸收，故推斷台灣金控業不完全符合效率市場假說。

Since the end of 2019, Covid-19 has had a significant impact on global economic development. The epidemic situation in Taiwan has gradually increased from the time when the new coronavirus virus was discovered to the time when Taiwan being upgraded to level three. This study selects three representative events during the period, and uses the event study to observe the abnormal returns of Taiwan’s financial holding companies. The result shows that with the rise of the epidemic in Taiwan, investors’confidence in the banking industry has decreased. In addition, the higher the proportion of foreign investment positions in the life insurance industry, the lower the investor's confidence in the financial holding companies. Third, when the growth rate of the number of confirmed cases in Taiwan is higher than that of the USA, a negative impact on the abnormal returns of the financial holding industry is observed. Finally, the impact of the epidemic on the stock price of financial holdings cannot be absorbed by the market in a short time, so it is inferred that Taiwan financial holdings does not fit in the efficient market hypothesis.