中國逆城市化現象之觀察與原因探討

An Empirical Study on Counter-Urbanization in China

從人口資料中可以觀察到中國近幾年來開始出現逆城市化的初始現象。本文使用2000-2019年《中國統計年鑑》資料計算出中國各省城鎮與鄉村人口的實際數量與變動量，以雙向固定效果模型來估計不同種類變數與逆城市化現象之間的關聯，檢視的因素包括環境污染、生活與住房成本、就業情況、居住環境品質與醫療健康資源等面向。估計結果顯示生活與住房成本因素（包括居民消費價格指數、人口密度、與房價所得比）與城鎮常住人口比例和城鎮遷入率有顯著的負向關聯、與鄉村遷入率有顯著的正向關聯；而其他包括空氣污染、生活品質等因素與遷徙率則並未有顯著關聯，顯示中國逆城市化現象最主要導因於城市地區高漲的生活與住房成本。此外，流動人口比例越高的省分人口變化對於住房成本越加敏感，隱含著流動人口受到住房成本之影響更大。

Based on the population data, an initial phenomenon of counter-urbanization can be observed in China in recent years. This paper uses data compiled from the China Statistical Yearbooks from 2000 to 2019 to compute the changes in urban and rural population in each province in China and adopts a two-way fixed effect model to estimate the determinants of counter-urbanization. The estimation results show that variables in the category of living and housing costs (including consumer price index, population density, and housing price-income ratio) have a significant negative correlation with the urban in-migration rate but a significant positive correlation with the rural in-migration rate. Other variables including air pollution and quality of life were not significantly associated with in-migration rates, suggesting that China’s anti-urbanization phenomenon is mainly caused by the rising cost of living and housing in urban areas. Furthermore, the negative association between housing costs and counter-urbanization is stronger in provinces with higher ratios of floating population, implying that the mobility of floating population is more sensitive to housing costs.