臺灣低利率環境下的政府支出效果

THE EFFECTS OF TAIWAN’S GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN A LOW-INTEREST-RATE ENVIRONMENT

本研究旨在探討臺灣低利率環境下的財政政策有效性，我們將1981:Q1至2022:Q4的樣本切割成正常與低利率時期，運用平滑局部投射模型估計總體變數對未預期政府支出衝擊的反應，研究發現兩個時期的政府支出政策效果有所不同。第一，低利率時期的產出乘數大於1，略高於正常時期。第二，低利率時期擴張性政府支出衝擊會對民間消費產生排擠，但對民間投資有明顯提升效果;相反的，正常時期民間消費有所提升，但會排擠民間投資。第三，面對政府支出增加，低利率時期的名目利率微幅下跌，物價水準受到抑制，實質利率幾乎不受影響，因此能夠刺激民間投資，帶來較大的乘數效果;正常時期的名目利率及通膨率皆會上升，實質利率微幅上揚，因此對民間投資的激勵不足。

We investigate the effectiveness of Taiwan’s fiscal policy in a lowinterest- rate environment by analyzing data from 1981:Q1 to 2022:Q4, which we divide into normal and low-interest-rate periods. Using a smooth local projection model, we estimate how macroeconomic variables respond to unanticipated government spending shocks. Our findings reveal distinct impacts during these two periods. First, during the low-interest-rate period, the output multiplier is greater than one, slightly higher than in the normal period. Second, expansionary government spending shocks during the low-interest- rate period reduce private consumption but significantly boost private investment. Conversely, during the normal period, consumption increases but private investment is constrained. Third, in response to increased government spending, the nominal interest rates in the low-interest-rate period experience a slight decline, while price levels are suppressed, and real interest rates are largely unaffected. This encourages private investment, resulting in a larger output multiplier. In contrast, during the normal period, both nominal interest rates and inflation rates rise, leading to a modest increase in real interest rates, which restrain private investment expansion.