全球供應鏈重組對臺灣製造業的影響:問卷實證分析

THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN RESTRUCTURING ON TAIWAN’S MANUFACTURING SECTOR: A QUESTIONNAIRE ANALYSIS

鑑於近年美中貿易戰、新冠疫情、以及各國供應鏈自主與調整等國際政經變動，可能對於我國產業成本與獲利產生重大深遠影響，本文使用問卷調查輔以財報數據與實證模型分析，探索近二年（2020～21）國內外總體經濟衝擊下，我國產業供應鏈調整模式如何影響其成本與獲利，進而推論其未來因應對策。結論簡述如次:首先，2020～21年，新冠疫情走勢是影響供應鏈調整最重要議題，其次是能源及原物料價格;第二，促使我國產業進行供應鏈調整的因素，2020年是國際能源與原物料價格、匯率波動、美中貿易紛爭，而國內房地產走勢則可能對廠商進行調整造成阻礙。2021年則分別為勞動成本與人力資源短缺、電力供應穩定性、主要國家與臺灣利率政策;第三，比較廠商採購價格、財報營業費用與營業收入等三個變數的影響，發現供應鏈重組未能立即改善2020年成本控制與營收，至2021年才收到明顯效果。最後，2022年後資料未及納入本文實證，但後續問卷追蹤發現製造業主要以「開發供應商或供貨來源」與「成立生產中心」方式分散供應鏈風險。近期半導體景氣趨緩情勢，75%相關供應鏈廠商面對不確定性，仍規劃新增產線產能。

This paper analyses the impact of global supply chain restructuring on Taiwan’s manufacturing sector using a 2020-21 questionnaire with stratified sampling. The main findings are as follows. First, most enterprise managers agreed that COVID-19 and the prices of raw materials and energy drove the restructuring. Second, in 2020 the factors causing restructuring were the prices of raw materials and energy, exchange rates, and U.S.-China disputes, but high housing prices in Taiwan hurt the restructuring. Third, looking at managers’estimated purchasing prices and actual profit in their financial statements in 2020-21, restructuring failed to improve their revenue and cost controls till 2021. Finally, results of the regressions were based on the data in 2020-21, but descriptive statistics in 2022 indicate that 75% of semiconductor firms still expanded their production capacity under uncertainty and recession. Finding new suppliers and establishing new production centers have been the primary strategy to decrease enterprises’supply chain risks.