驅動臺灣通膨與經濟成長的需求與供給因子

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS DRIVING INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TAIWAN

隨COVID-19疫情趨緩，全球需求快速復甦，而供應鏈瓶頸與俄烏戰爭導致供給面緊縮，全球通膨因而持續攀升，臺灣亦不例外。為了解需求面與供給面的變化如何影響臺灣通膨與經濟成長，本文採用結構式因子模型，設定符合供需理論的符號限制（sign-restrictions），認定臺灣的總合需求與供給因子。根據本文實證結果，2021年臺灣CPI年增率快速攀升係同時反映需求快速的擴張，以及供給緊縮的問題; 2022年臺灣通膨居高不下則主要反映供給持續的緊縮，需求擴張程度則是明顯趨緩，並逐漸轉為緊縮。本文實證亦顯示，當發生緊縮貨幣政策衝擊，需求因子會顯著地緊縮，供給因子則無顯著反應;而當全球供應鏈壓力上升，供給因子的反應則是明顯大於需求因子。供需因子的反應與預期相符。

As the COVID-19 pandemic subsided, global demand rapidly recovered. However, simultaneously, global supply chain bottlenecks and the Russo- Ukrainian War caused supply constraints, leading to a continuous rise in global inflation. Taiwan was no exception to this trend. To evaluate how changes in demand and supply affect inflation and economic growth in Taiwan, we employ a structural factor model and identify the structural demand and supply factors through sign-restrictions. The model indicates that the rapid increase in Taiwan’s CPI inflation rate in 2021 reflected both rapid demand expansion and supply constraints. In 2022, Taiwan’s persistently high inflation primarily mirrored supply constraints, while the extent of demand expansion notably decelerated and gradually turned into contraction. The simultaneous decline in demand and supply factors led Taiwan into an economic contraction phase starting from the first quarter of 2022, with continuously slowing economic growth. Our empirical study also reveals that, after a tightening monetary policy shock, demand factor decreases significantly, but supply factor does not respond significantly. On the other hand, when the global supply chain pressure increases, the response of supply factor exceeds that of demand factor.