| 英文摘要 |
The tourism output is used to measure a country's position in the international economic community. There are many factors that influence tourism output. Prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the tourism output in Taiwan was in a growth phase. The Asian region had the highest proportion of global visitors to Taiwan. However, the outbreak of the pandemic and its systemic risks severely impacted the tourism industry. Before formulating plans for economic development, it is necessary to have access to relevant management decision-making information related to tourism in Taiwan. This study utilizes the Grey Prediction GM(1, 1) model, known for its high accuracy, and applies Grey Relational Analysis. The study focuses on Taiwan and examines the status of tourism output under the pandemic systemic risk, aiming to forecast the tourism output using the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) expenditure data and identify the economic development contribution factors that explain the tourism output from the Asian region to Taiwan. The research results presented in this study provide decision-making references for managers m formulating tourism development policies. |
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