臺灣地區治安環境之綜合評價及耦合協調性分析

Comprehensive Evaluation and Coupling Coordination Analysis of Public Security Environment in Taiwan

治安環境是一個綜合概念，若僅以犯罪發生件數或發生比率等簡單的數字，主觀且直接評斷整體治安環境的好壞，則容易被數字誤導，因而忽略了許多深層的社會現象及問題。由於社會秩序是一種從內部建立起來的平衡，因此本文利用犯罪生產過程中，透過公開資訊可獲取之18項犯罪投入變數數據，建構包含社會構面、經濟構面及犯罪控制3個子系統之治安環境指標體系，以臺灣地區20個縣市於2000年至2017年間計6,480筆資料進行耦合協調度模型分析，研究目的並非著重在各縣市治安優劣的比較，主要藉由客觀的統計數據，觀察3個子系統的趨勢變化，及其彼此間之耦合協調性，瞭解各縣市在社會經濟變遷下，所引起治安環境的改變情形，希冀提供政府機關或學者研擬治安政策之參考。經實證分析結果，治安環境以犯罪控制指標的加強，最容易顯現績效；提升各項福利設施及補助，有助於治安環境的改善；避免所得分配與貧富差距等問題逐漸惡化，則為提升治安環境品質的必要條件。藉由本文多項研究發現，印證了縣市治安環境在社會構面、經濟構面及犯罪控制之間均衡發展的重要性，當治安環境能穩定的均衡發展，則民眾對治安的提升有感，社會才能真正地和諧進步，達到所謂「民安國強」的境界。

The public security environment is a comprehensive concept. Suppose we subjectively judge the overall public security environment simply based on figures such as the number or rate of crime, it can be misleading, and many deep-seated social phenomena and problems will be ignored. Since social order is an internally established balance, this paper uses the variable data of 18 crime inputs available through open public information in the crime production to construct a public security environment index system including three subsystems: social dimension, economic dimension, and crime control. Based on a total of 6,480 data from 20 counties and cities in Taiwan from 2000 to 2017, the paper tried to analyze the coupling coordination mode. The purpose of the study does not focus on the comparison of public security performance in each city, it mainly observes the trend changes of the three subsystems and their coupling and coordination through objective statistical data to understand the changes in the public security environment caused by social and economic changes in each city. The result can serve as a reference for government agencies or scholars to formulate public security policies. The results of empirical analysis show that the strengthening of crime control indicators is the easiest way to show performance in the public security environment, upgrading various welfare facilities and subsidies helps improve the public security environment, and avoiding the gradual deterioration of income distribution and the gap between the rich and the poor is a necessary criterion for improving the public security environment. Several research findings in this paper confirm the importance of the coordinated development between social dimension, economic dimension, and crime control in the county and city’s public security environment. When the public security environment can develop stably and harmoniously, the people will feel the improvement of public security, and the society can be truly harmonious and balanced, reaching the so-called ''The country be prosperous and the people at peace.''