受監禁一、二級男性毒品施用者特性及犯罪生涯發展軌跡之研究

The Characteristics and Development Trajectory of the Criminal Career among First or Second-Degree Male Drug Users in Prison

藥物濫用是全球的主要健康和社會問題，然國內針對一、二級毒品施用者其生涯發展軌跡著墨不多，本研究以群組化軌跡模式來建構毒品施用者生涯軌跡，來預測再犯風險評估模型，並比較不同軌跡毒品施用者的特性，進而探究影響毒品施用者再犯的因子。
本研究採生命歷程觀點，以縱貫性資料回溯性分析北部某矯正機關受監禁一、二級男性毒品施用者，以在2003年至2005年期間初犯328人之官方已去識別化數據資料為研究樣本，分析該樣本至2018年年底資料。本研究以SAS統計軟體進行數據資料分析，採用群族化軌跡模式、描述性統計、變異數分析、羅吉斯迴歸及存活分析等統計方法。
本研究發現毒品施用者可分為62.25%成人早期起始型（Early Adulthood Onset, EAO）、27.4%成人期起始型（Adulthood Onset, AO）和10.35%成人中期起始型（Middle Adulthood Onset, MAO）。有75%毒品施用者教育程度在國中（含）以下，會影響其社經地位，尤其是對EAO和MAO影響較大。三組被監禁時間以MAO最短，其次為AO及EAO，而監禁釋放後至再次被監禁時間三組無顯著差異。毒品施用者每被監禁1次，再犯風險增加1.29倍，出獄後有主要問題者，再犯風險增加1.7倍，但因好奇觸法，其再犯風險會減少68%。研究亦發現毒品施用者呈現犯罪專門化之傾向。

Background: Drug abuse is a major global health and social issue. However, it still lacks the trajectories research of first and second-degree drug abusers in Taiwan. If heterogeneity between different drug abuser groups can be founded, drug abuse behaviors can be effectively predicted and prevented, and the risk of recidivism of drug abusers can be reduced.
Objective: This study constructed a trajectory of drug abusers by group-based trajectory modeling to predict recidivism risk. In addition, this study compared different characteristics among drug abusers across trajectories, and further investigate the factors that influence recidivism among drug abusers.
Research Method: This study adopted a retrospective analysis of longitudinal data with life course perspective. The study population was male incarcerated by criminal possession of a controlled substance in first and second degree at correction institute in northern Taiwan. The official de-identified data of 328 first-time offenders between 2003 and 2005 were used by this study. The data of this sample were analyzed from 2003 to 2018. Group-based trajectory modeling, descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, logistic regression, and survival analysis were used to analyze the data by SAS statistical software.
Result: This study found that drug abusers could be divided into three categories, which were 62.25% Early Adulthood Onset (EAO), 27.4% Adulthood Onset (AO), and 10.35% Middle Adulthood Onset (MAO). Almost 75% of drug abusers' education level were below high school. Their socioeconomic status would be affected by drug use, especially for EAO and MAO. The incarceration lengths from short to long were MAO, AO, and EAO. The period from the release to reincarceration was no significant difference between the three groups. Every time a drug user be incarcerated, his recidivism risk would be increased by 1.29 times. Recidivism risk would be increased by 1.7 times for those who expected having life troubles after release. For those who violated the law due to curiosity, recidivism risk would be down to 68%. Drug abusers had a crime specialization tendency.