刑事證明中經驗法則確證的規則塑造

The Justification for the Empirical Rule in Criminal Proof

以日常生活經驗法則為根據進行的證據推理往往存在爭議，刑事證明應當審慎運用經驗法則。實證研究發現，經驗法則在刑事證明中的運用不僅常見，而且不規範問題突出。經驗法則確證，包括確認經驗法則本身是否可靠和確認經驗法則運用過程是否可靠。為方便操作，一是確立確證經驗法則的規則，如通過明確語言表達規則和客觀化判斷規則來判斷經驗法則本身的可靠性；二是確立運用經驗法則確證的規則，包括客觀證明先於經驗判斷、構建可廢止的推理規則、動態分配證明責任以及保守地進行推斷。

The evidence analysis based on the experience of ordinary life is often controversial, and empirical rule should be used prudently in criminal proof. Empirical research found that the application of empirical rule in criminal proof is not only common, but also unstandardized. The issues of the justification for the empirical rule include confirming whether the empirical rule is reliable and whetherits application process is reliable. To facilitate the practice, we should establish some rules for confirming empirical rule, such as clarifying the basic standard for judging the reliability of empirical rule by the objectified and specified judgment methods; and establishing the rules for the justification by empirical rule including proof prior to inference, revocable inference, dynamic distribution of burden of proof and conservative extrapolation.