拜登上台後美中關係的變遷與展望

Changes and prospects of US-China relations under Biden Administration

習近平原先期待拜登上台後，將一改川普對中國的打壓，轉為交往為主的政策。但隨即出現，川規拜隨，甚至反中態勢有過之而無不及。情報、經貿與軍事，三路齊發，印太地區以美國為首的反中聯對已然成形。此前，2017年底的《十九大報告》已透漏出習近平對內集權與對外擴張的內心世界。2018年川普對於中國開始進行全方位的圍堵，面對此壓力，習近平開始走向內縮，強化其內控與集權的佈署。2021年下半年，習近平進行內部全面性的整頓與改革，導致中國自身社會經濟聲帶的嚴重斲傷。美中關係趨緊，衝突越來越大。拜登的安全政策固將中國與俄羅斯列為美國的最大威脅，但終究中國是主角，俄羅斯只是配角。即便北京冬奧讓中國戰爭避開箭頭，而普欽入侵烏克蘭也未移轉拜登圍中的戰略初衷。美國聯隊決心合圍中國的政治現實已難逆轉。台灣也只能選邊於美國為主的民主同盟。而台海兩國越多的交流與合作將使台灣陷入更交纏的困擾，建立堅強的主體性與獨立性以及有深度的社會文化體系，並積極與國際接軌，「托中（國）向世（界）」才是王道。

Xi Jinping ever expected Biden to take over Trump’s anti-China policy and turn it into a policy of more engagement. But it appears that Biden follows Trump’s policy on China and the anti-China atmosphere is even worse. The anti-China coalition led by the US in the Indian Pacific region has taken shape covering at least three fields: intelligence, economy and trade, and military affairs. Previously, the report of the 19th national congress at the end of 2017 had revealed Xi’s inner world of internal centralization and external expansion. In the second half of 2021, Xi carried out comprehensive internal rectification and reform, resulting in serious damage to China’s own socio-economic ecology. U.S.-China relations become more sour and confrontations are growing. Biden’s security policy firmly lists China and Russia altogether as the biggest threat to the US, but after all, China is the main target and Russia is only secondary. Beijing’s Winter Olympics covered China from US serious attention temporarily and Putin’s invasion of Ukraine did not change Biden’s original strategic intention, the political reality that the United States is determined to encircle China is difficult to reverse. Taiwan can only choose a Democratic Alliance dominated by the US. The more exchanges and cooperation between Taiwan and China will make Taiwan fall into more dependence on China. Hence, it is a royal way for Taiwan to survive by “separating from China, marching to the world.”