拜登的第一年──變與不變

Biden’s First Year on Cross Taiwan Strait Policy: Change and Continuity

美國與中國的關係，在川普任內進入緊張惡化。美國與中國關係的惡化的同時，川普對台灣送出許多之前總統從未有的溫暖。例如高層官員來台訪問、大量提升的軍售、口語上的支持，這些都是以往不會給台灣的待遇。拜登的外交與國籍政策，即使表面上不會川規拜隨，但是整個大勢的走向也在川普執政時便已確定，與中國的關係已經很難回到2018年之前。本文的重點在於檢視拜登就任這一年來，在美台中三方關係上的互動演變，看其變與不變之處。本文認為拜登的第一年，對台灣有前所未有的表態支持，然而一個中國政策仍舊不變。戰略模糊或是清晰，只是方向和戰略的選擇。拜登的護欄，不只是預防中國暴衝，對台灣的圈管也是有弦外之音。台灣不要沉浸在這一年來美方堅若磐石的承諾中，美國政府的精算和強勢，不論是對手或是夥伴，都得戒慎恐懼地應對。

The US-Sino relations turned sour in Trump’s administration, in which Taiwan benefited with some unprecedentedly treatments from the US government. Regardless of the weight of those favored treatments, Taiwan seemed to gain much more support and confidence facing China’s assertions. Biden’s administration didn’t deviate from Trump’s policy of countering China, therefore, some stronger verbal commitments were released to support, even defend, Taiwan when China launch military actions. However, the US government never intended to change the firm one-China policy. On strategic clarity or ambiguity of the US toward China and Taiwan, we find out it is not black or white categorization. Instead it’s more like a scale position or direction matter. Biden administration might move toward clarity more than before, but shouldn’t be interpreted as complete change from ambiguity to clarity. Taiwan also shouldn’t indulgent with the rock-solid verbal commitments from the US government.