臺灣民粹主義者與反菁英情緒： 世界價值觀調查臺灣資料的分析

Populism and Anti-Elite Sentiments in Taiwan: An Analysis of the World Values Survey Data

在臺灣的脈絡下，本文以人民決策、反菁英、庶民誠意，以及強人領導等四種反菁英情緒指標建構民粹主義概念。本文以潛類型分析2019年世界價值觀調查臺灣資料，將臺灣民眾分為低度、中度與高度等三種潛在民粹類型。結果顯示約有1/3的民眾屬於低度民粹，相信政治菁英仍會在意他們的意見。另外有54%屬於中度民粹民眾，感覺自己的政策發聲，不受政治菁英的重視。最後約有1/8的民眾屬於高度民粹，反菁英情緒最為激進。同時，高度民粹與中度民粹民眾總和有2/3，意謂大多數民眾對政治菁英產生反感。其次，本文運用迴歸模型，對這三種類型民眾的人口社經背景進行分析，結果發現：高度民粹民眾與個人主觀感受的經濟不安全感及國民黨支持度有正面相關。最後，研究發現，高度民粹民眾懷有菁英與政府都是貪腐的想法、高度政治不信任感，甚至強烈排斥移民及同性戀團體。民粹主義不僅在政治上產生效應，也會將保守價值擴散蔓延到社會議題。

"We conceptualize populism in Taiwan as endorsing anti-elite sentiments, which comprise popular sovereignty, anti-elitism, sincere people, and strong leadership. Based on the 2019 Taiwan dataset of the World Values Survey, we use the latent class analysis to differentiate respondents into three groups: the weak, mild, and strong populists. We find that approximately one-third of Taiwanese is weak populists who expect more power elites’attention; 54% is mild populists, who voice their policy concerns but feel disregarded by power elites; and one-eighth is the strong populists with the highest score on all four dimensions of anti-elite sentiments. Because both the mild and strong populists sum up to two-thirds of the adult population, a large majority seems to hold an anti-elite sentiment. The outcomes from our further analysis of the social-economic and demographic backgrounds of the populists suggest that strong populism is positively associated with perceived economic insecurity and support for the KMT party. Moreover, populists tend to believe that elites and the government are corrupt, register a low level of political trust, and discriminate against homosexuals, people with HIV, and immigrants. In summary, populists in Taiwan not only denigrate elites but also are conservative in value positions."