臺灣為何犯罪下降──從Farrell的「初次犯罪假定」思考

Why the Crime Drop in Taiwan: Speculation from Farrell’s “Debut Crime Hypothesis”

犯罪大幅下降為近30年犯罪學探討重要議題之一。本文採用Farrell提出的「初次犯罪假定」，從機會與特性兩觀點解讀1995-2015年臺灣刑案統計犯罪率下降主要歸功於青少年犯罪人口率下降，整體環境的犯罪機會減少使青少年開始犯罪的難度增加，是青少年犯罪下降之主因。早年有較多的犯罪機會導致投入犯罪的青少年較多，進而因犯罪慣性使部分具高犯罪傾向者持續犯罪，形成中壯年的犯罪率下降率較低。雖然本文並未檢驗統計上因果關係，但卻提供一值得思考的方向：外在環境犯罪機會與個人犯罪傾向共同形塑犯罪之開始與持續。

The great crime drop is probably the most important criminological issue of modern times. This paper employed Farrell’s debut crime hypothesis, applying the perspectives of opportunity and propensity to explore the decline of Taiwan crime rate from 1995 to 2015, primarily owing to falling arrest rates for adolescents. The reduced crime opportunities in the overall environment made it more difficult for young people to start crimes, which might be the main reason for the decline in juvenile delinquency. More crime opportunities in the early years led to more young people committing crimes, and because of criminal inertia, some people with high criminality continued crimes, inducing the observation that the crime reduction rate for the middle-aged adults was relatively low. Although the causal relationship has not been tested statistically, this paper provides a premise: the external crime opportunities and internal criminal tendency unitedly shape the onset and persistence of crime.