民進黨政府國內政治考量與操作下的台美關係

The DPP's Domestic Political Considerations and Manipulations and Its Influence to the US-Taiwan Relations

民進黨政府執政七年多之後，台美關係從小布希總統上台初期表示「盡其所能」協助台灣自衛的佳境，淪落到陳總統過境美國本土都不可得的窘境。從外交的角度來看，台美關係的倒退是民進黨的對美外交失敗。本文提出「反中動員模式」來分析民進黨的國內選舉操作，認為台美關係惡化，是陳總統刻意操作下的結果，以犧牲台美關係換取民進黨總統選舉的勝利，陳總統因此在2004年連任成功。2008年立委與總統選舉結果，顯示台灣選民已厭倦此種動員。如果民進黨未來不放棄此一模式，將會對該黨之長期發展產生負面影響。而馬當選總統，則意味未來四年台美關係將比民進黨執政期間來得平順與改善、兩岸關係亦然。

In 2001, President Bush said that the US will defend Taiwan, ''whatever it takes,'' however, in 2007, the Bush administration didn't allow President Chen Shui-bian's air force one to land on the US continent during his trip to visit Central Amirca. It means that after the DPP administration in power for seven years, the US-Taiwan relations are deteriorating, and the DPP administration should take full responsibilities for this diplomatic failure. By constructing an ''anti-China Mobilization Model'' to analyze the DPP's election strategies, this article argues that the backwardness of the US-Taiwan relations are manipulated and sacrificed by President Chen Shui-bian to win his re-election in 2004. The legislative and presidential elections in 2008, however, show that most of the people in Taiwan are tired of this kind of ''anti-China mobilization.'' It will have negative impact on the development of the DPP in the long run, if the DPP do not give up the anti-China mobilization. Meanwhile, Ma Ying-Jeou's winning of the presidential election, implies that in the next four years the US-Taiwan and cross-Strait relations will be smoother and better than that of the past eight years when the DPP administration was in power.