新回合農業談判縮減關稅級距對台灣農產品上、下游產業之影響

The Impact of Reducing Tariff Escalations on Taiwan's Agricultural-related Upstream and Downstream Industries in the WTO Doha Round Negotiations

由於調升性的關稅結構會阻礙開發中國家的工業化進展，使得縮減關稅級距成為WTO新回合談判的議題之一，本文之主要目的在於探討我國農產品上、下游產業之間的關稅調升現象，以及縮減關稅級距的經濟影響。本文首先設立一理論模型來探討縮減關稅級距對產業結構以及社會福利的影響，其次分析台灣農產品的關稅調升現象，最後應用可計算一般均衡的單國模型來模擬縮減關稅級距的三種可能方式對台灣農產品造成的影響。由實證結果得知，若僅就台灣本身總體社會福利的觀點而言，對於WTO新回合縮減關稅級距的談判，我國應該站在支持的一方。然而若僅就台灣農產品生產者的觀點而言，則我國對於縮減關稅級距的議題上應該有所保留。倘若削減關稅與縮減關稅級距成為WTO新回合談判時的共識，為了減輕其對我國農業的衝擊，本文建議我國應該採行「僅減少上游產品的關稅降幅以縮減關稅級距」的方式來進行。

Tariff escalation becomes one of the major issues in the new Doha Round negotiation because it is viewed as a stumbling block to the industrialization development for the developing countries. The major purpose of this study is to examine the degrees of escalations in Taiwan's agricultural-related commodities and the economic consequences to reduce them. A simplified theoretical model is first established to illustrate the structural impacts and welfare implications of reducing tariff escalation. Then a computable general equilibrium model of Taiwan is applied to simulate the quantitative impacts of three alternative reduction proposals. The empirical results indicate that if welfare improvement is the major policy concern, then Taiwan should favor the reduction because it improves the overall welfare of Taiwan. However, if farmers' welfare is the major policy concern, then Taiwan should act against the reduction. In case the consensus to reduce tariff escalations has been determined, then the second-best choice is to offer upstream industries relatively smaller tariff reduction rates than the downstream industries.