WTO杜哈回合關稅減讓對台灣漁業的影響──漁業部門均衡模型之應用

A Study of the Impact of Tariff Reduction in Doha Development Round on the Fisheries Sector in Taiwan: An Application of the Fisheries Sector Equilibrium Model

世界貿易組織於2004年通過七月套案，確立非農產品市場進入議題之新回合多邊貿易談判架構，依2005年香港部長宣言指出非農產品將採用非線性瑞士公式進行關稅削減。本文應用數學規劃方法建構漁業部門均衡模型，模擬若2010年完成新回合瑞士公式係數8關稅削減對產業造成衝擊的合理範圍。實證結果顯示，以2004年為基期，整體漁業部門將減產3.34%~5.52%、總產值減少10.21%~12.59%。其中，遠洋、沿近海及養殖漁業將分別減產1.52%~1.81%、4.26~13.02%及5.84~8.46%，極需漁政單位依各漁法規模別是否具國際市場競爭力及資源保育經營條件，及早規劃沿近海及養殖漁業離漁及離養措施。

Under the new round of negociation under World Trade Organization, the July Package regarding Non-Agriculture Market Access was adapted in August 2004 and Swiss formula tariff reduction with multi coefficients was adapted in sixth Ministerial Meeting in Hong Kong in 2006. This study tries to evaluate the impact of the implementation of line-by-line Swiss Formula tariff reduction under coefficient 8 in 2010 on fishery industry in Taiwan by utilizing the Taiwanese fishery sector equilibrium mathematic programming model. Based on the most current dataset in 2004, the result shows that the total production and value of fishery sector will be reduced by 3.34%~5.52% and 10.21%~12.59%, respectively. The total production of distant water, coastal/offshore and aquaculture fishery will decrease by 1.52%~1.81%, 4.26~13.02% and 5.84~8.46%, respectively. It is urge to that the government authority need to implement the exit incentive earlier to insure the Taiwanese fishery industry improve its operational efficiency to meet the challenge of globalization and the requirement of the responsibility of resources conservation and commensuration of the size of fishing fleet and aquaculture farming with the availability of market opportunities.