進口乾金針與乾香菇潛在衝擊之分析

Potential Effects of Imported Dried Lily Flower and Dried Mushroom in Taiwan

台灣加入WTO後，乾金針（dried lily flower）與乾香菇（dried mushroom）進口方面已採行「關稅配額」（TRQ）管理方案，本文就可能因應衝擊措施進行分析。研究結果發現國內乾金針與乾香菇市場供給與價格均具動態特性且1997年以後受走私（smuggling）影響，更有供給結構小於價格傳遞結構的影響性質。此外，相同品種與商品最大可能進口來源如中國大陸與國內生產成本及市場價格均有明顯落差；一旦開放進口，國內該二產品欠缺足夠的市場競爭優勢。加上，兩產品的國內產期集中於年中與年底，又可長期儲存，必有短長期之可能影響。本文藉由國內年度供給資料與月別價格資料建立供給與價格傳遞模式，修正不穩定性（nonstationary）後，並估計係數彈性值，以利判斷進口品對國內該二產品供給與價格變動造成可能衝擊程度。實証結果發現乾香菇供給可能具落遲的價格彈性，而乾金針供給的落遲價格彈性更是偏低，且兩產品價格變動影響方向均為正向；反之，乾香菇價格傳遞可能出現不具彈性的落遲正向影響。依背景資料比較與估計結果的低供給彈性與低價格傳遞彈性，本研究建議了對兩產品的TRQ適當管理及配套手段。

This research analyzes potential import effects of dried lily flower and dried mushroom and necessary measures of Tariff-Rate Quota systems and others in Taiwan after joining WTO. It has found that domestic supply and price of those two products have dynamic characteristics in data and significant smuggling impacts on domestic market. The effects of price transmission are considered as more significant than that of supply side. Due to production cost disadvantage, domestic dried lily flower and mushroom are lack of market competitiveness. The seasonal production cycle and storable characteristics of these two products creates possible short- and long-run effects. This paper uses yearly and monthly data respectively in the estimation of supply and price linkage regression equations to obtain elasticities. The corrections of nonstationary time series of relative variables are made before estimation. Results have shown that the dried mushroom does not provide elastic price transmission outcome. According to the estimated results, the suitable TRQ and other allowed measures are suggested.