台灣食品業對大陸投資與貿易間交互關係之研究

A Study on the Interaction Between Direct Investment to China and International Trade: Evidence from Food-Process Industries of Taiwan

本文旨在探討台灣食品業對大陸投資與貿易間交互關係，基於廠商追求成本極小化的條件下，建構對大陸投資與貿易的實證聯立模型。以1991年至2002年季資料進行實證推估，從對大陸投資模式之結果發現，隨著時代更替，食品業若欲藉由增加對大陸投資以降低國內生產成本時，則此投資行為將誘使國內傳統勞力密集產業的生產萎縮；進而減少本國勞力密集產業的就業機會，最後促使國內產業結構逐漸由勞動密集的傳統產業，走向資本密集產業發展。另外，從出口模式結果發現，隨著勞動成本提高，食品廠商若欲繼續生存，則勢必會將部分的生產轉移至大陸以降低國內生產成本，維繫其存活及其經濟規模。由於國內食品業逐漸喪失其國際競爭優勢，故國內食品業產品出口的比重逐漸下降，進而促使食品產業外移；此外，本文也發現前期對外投資增減對當期出口量間關係呈現替代，顯示食品業對大陸直接投資勢必減少日後本國食品業的出口量。

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the interaction between foreign direct investment to China and international trade in Taiwan. We construct a simultaneous-equation model to estimate foreign direct investment and international trade based on a cost-minimizing condition by using quarterly data from 1991 to 2002. The empirical result of FDI equation shows that if food-process firms increase FDI for China to decrease the production cost, then they will decrease the production and opportunity of employment for traditional labor-intensive industries in Taiwan. Moreover, this situation will change Taiwan's industry structure from labor-intensive to capital-intensive. The empirical result of export equation shows that if food-process firms want to survive or extend their economies of scale, then they should transfer parts of domestic production to China in order to decrease cost. Moreover, this also shows that there exists a substitute relationship between FDI of previous period and export quantity of current period.