政策導向下之台灣稻米經濟：計量經濟模型分析

An Analysis of Rice Economy in Taiwan under Policy Orientation: Based on Econometric Model

基於稻米政策與產業發展的密切關係，本文即試圖瞭解在目前政策導向下的台灣稻米經濟特性，並從歷來的政策演變中探索其政策思維，以及藉由模擬取消保價收購政策或休耕給付，體現政策的差異性。本文由政策演變中察覺：因休耕給付政策的導入，使得保價收購政策在提高農民所得的重要性降低，但維持保價收購的形式，對政府而言，仍具有市場價格宣告、掌握糧源及穩定糧價的重要意義。本文藉由期作別的台灣稻米經濟計量模型實證分析得知：調整收購價格對於生產及價格的影響，皆大於調整單位面積收購數量，第二期的反應程度較大。第一期的稻田決策以稻作或輪作為主，故對輪作給付有顯著反應，而在第二期的稻田決策則以稻作或休耕為主，且休耕行為具有習慣傾向，其對休耕給付的反應程度要較第一期大上四倍。長期而言，市場價格、稻作面積及產量均有下降的自然趨勢，而休耕面積則有增加情形，其中有三分之二的稻作面積集中在第一期。依政策調整的模擬結果發現：若只取消保價收購政策，全年產量將減少 251,060公噸糙米，第一、二期的躉售價格分別下跌 1.05 元、1.53 元；但若同時也取消休耕給付，則第一、二期的躉售價格預期將下跌 2.06 元、2.86 元，且跌幅甚至有擴大的趨勢。另在26 萬公頃的休耕農地中，其實有 16 萬公頃與休耕給付取消與否無關，是處於長期休耕狀態的。最後，本文也試算休耕支出乘數為 1.23，而保價收購支出乘數僅為 0.43，顯見政府欲以保價收購政策間接達成稻農所得提高的目的，並非有效率的作法。

Due to the close relationship between rice policy and the industrial development, this study attempts to understand the policy effects on rice economy, meanwhile, to explore the policy considerations behind policy evolution. Based on the estimated economic characteristics, this paper will recognize the policy difference by means of simulation of canceling purchasing policy with guarantee price or set-aside payment. The results indicate that the importance of purchasing policy with guarantee price is reducing while introduction of set-aside payment policy. However, maintain the purchasing policy with guarantee price still have some meaningful in price declaration, grasping rice for government inventory and stabilizing rice price. Based on the empirical results of rice econometric model, this paper also shows that the effect of adjusting guarantee price on production and price are greater than adjustment in purchasing quantity per ha. The effect of rotation payment on rice production is statistically significant in the first crop, however, the effect of set-aside payment on production in the second crop is larger the first crop by four times. In the long run, it is expected a naturally decline trend in rice price, paddy rice planted area and production quantity, but fallow area will be increasing. Two-third of paddy rice area would concentrate in first crop. According to the simulation of policy adjustment, this paper finds that total quantity of brown rice would decrease 251,060 tons in one year and wholesale price would lower 1.05, 1.53 NT dollar respectively, if only abolish purchasing policy with guarantee price. Furthermore, plus with canceling set-aside payment, it is expected that wholesale price would lower 2.06, 2.86 NT dollar respectively, even the reduction level will expand. In addition, there are 160 thousands fallows area in total 260 thousands of fallows area are nothing to do with canceling set-aside payment or not, in other words, many areas are continually in state of fallow. Finally, this study also estimates set-aside expenditure multiplier is 1.23, and purchasing policy with guarantee price expenditure multiplier is only 0.43. Obviously, it is not an efficient way to improvement framers’income by purchasing policy with guarantee price.