食用美國進口帶骨牛肉罹患新型庫賈氏病之風險現況研析   全文下載

Analysis on the Current Situation of the Risk of Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease from American Imported Boned Beef

國際間認為人類的新型庫賈氏病（variant CJD, vCJD）與牛的牛海綿狀腦病（Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, BSE）是互有相關之疾病，BSE又稱狂牛症是一種對牛隻具神經毒性且致命的腦部疾病，研究指出BSE的致病普恩蛋白（Protease-resistant PrP）有人畜共通的傳染機制，因此評估國人食用進口牛肉而感染vCJD之健康風險為食品安全之重要議題，本研究依據高估風險的原則，分別考慮人種易感性基因型、受感染牛隻的牛肉與牛血含有微量感染物質等的參數差異，並依最新之國人食用牛肉與相關產品攝取量與歷年美國牛隻進口量等參數，使用Crystal ball軟體，進行50,000次蒙地卡羅模擬運算以評估食用進口牛肉的潛在健康風險，並利用拔靴法估算模擬結果的信賴區間。評估之結果顯示，國內牛肉消費者每天食用美國帶骨牛肉的終生風險中位數為9.29×10-10，95％信賴區間上限為9.86×10-10。本研究風險評估研究探討國人食用BSE國家進口之帶骨牛肉之健康風險現況，可作為風險溝通與管理之參考。

The Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) are interrelated diseases. BSE, also known as mad cow disease, is neurotoxic and caused deadly brain disease on cattle. Studies have shown that BSE's disease-resistant PrP has a common mechanism of infection between humans and animals. Therefore, assessing the health risks of vCJD infection among the national population that consume imported beef is an important food safety issue. This study adopted the precautionary principle that overestimated the risks and considered the difference in the susceptibility genotype of the human race, the beef of the infected cattle, and the trace amount of infectious substances in the bovine blood. Moreover, Crystal ball software analyzed the latest data the amount of beef consumption and related products, as well as the amount of imported beef from the U.S. over the years, and 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the potential health risks of imported beef. The confidence interval of the simulation results was estimated with the bootstrap method. The results of the evaluation showed that the median risk of domestic beef consumers eating American boned beef per day was 9.29 × 10-10, and the upper limit of 95% confidence interval was 9.86 × 10-10. This study's risk assessment study explores the current state of health risks of public consuming beef imported from BSE countries and serves as a reference for risk communication and management.