台灣軍事戰略發展方向──「立足現況、因應威脅」的觀點

Standing Firm and Marching toward the Challenge: On the Direction of the Development of Taiwan's Military Strategy

台灣面臨中國武力強大的威脅，在中國統一台灣的設想中，軍事始終扮演最後關鍵角色。亦即在一切和平手段皆無效之後，軍事仍是中國決策者的必要選項。而在「和平統一」過程當中，中國軍事力量一樣扮演重要角色。本文旨在探討「在中國現今的軍事威脅下，台灣軍事戰略的發展方向」。傳統對中國軍事戰略的探討，經常集中於中方政策宣示的蒐集和整理；本文除此之外，將討論「在現今台海兩岸政軍環境之下，中方軍事威脅的樣態」，接著再由中方的威脅與台灣軍事發展的特徵，分析台灣軍事戰略的應有發展方向應以「立足現況、因應威脅」為原則，對於中國對台七大威脅，台灣應迅速整備制空戰力，添購新式戰機，並加速水下兵力現代化；並應強化民防、心防，反制假新聞等統戰手段，以避免未戰先敗的失敗主義過度發酵。

For many years, PRC has always been the greatest challenge to Taiwan's security-- Beijing has not guaranteed to give up the use of military force toward Taiwan. Small in size and only 110 miles from the China, Taiwan is at a geographic disadvantage. Although a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would still be risky and difficult, Beijing is likely to choose to launch blockade or air/missile bombardment to forced Taipei to accept political solution of unification. Many significant Chinese improvements in air warfare and amphibious assault capabilities have increased its probability of success. This article argued that Taiwan needs to consider current constraints of resources and national identity of ROC Armed Forces. In the foreseeable future, it is unlikely for the US and any other powers in the Western Pacific region to assist Taiwan without taking into account of Beijing's diplomatic, economic and military response. Therefore, Taiwan has to reconsider and enhance its contribution to the US and the other countries with the ability to deter against China's military expansion. To strengthen the capability of Chinese military intelligence collection and analysis and to incorporate regular military planning and training should be the top priority. Taiwan also needs to be creative about how to use the military and equipment they currently have. At the same time, Taiwan should strengthen its capability to response Chinese psychological warfare to avoid defeatism that erodes the resolution to defend this island.