台灣地區期望住宅需求彈性之分析

AN ANALYSIS OF EXPECTED HOUSING DEMAND ELASTICITY IN TAIWAN AREA

本研究透過不連續選擇理論中之Logit模型，建立台灣地區住宅市場之期望需求模式，並據以推論台北市、高雄市、省轄市及其他縣市地區之期望價格彈性及期望所得彈性。本研究所使用之資料為民國82年台灣地區住宅狀祝調查之個體家戶資料。資料整理過程中，本研究將該調查所提供之不同年期的住宅價格調整為民國82年之貨幣價值，並利用同年期台灣地區家庭收支調查之資料間接推測家戶之所得。研究結果顯示，台灣地區家戶對住宅之期望需求並不受家戶所得的變動而有顯著的改變，所得彈性小於1。意即顯示，雖然住宅已被廣為使用於理財投資，但本質上仍為民生必需品的財貨屬性。此外，研究結果得到住宅之期望價格彈性介於0～-1之間，顯示當住宅價格上漲時，社會對住宅之總支出亦隨之增加。

In this study, we construct an expected housing demand model based on the logit model which is used to compute the choice probability of household according to discrete choice theory. The expected housing demand model is then used to compute the expected price elasticity and income elasticity for Taipei city, Kaohsiung City, the provincial cities and the rest cities in Taiwan Area. The data used in this study is the disaggregate housing data from the Housing Status Survey (HSS) of Taiwan Area in 1993. We also use the data from the Survey of Family Income & Expenditure in Taiwan Area as the complement data. The result indicates that the expected housing demand of household is inelastic to the household income change, since the expected income elasticity is less then one. This illustrates the housing good still strongly have the property of necessary good in .Taiwan even though many households used housing as investment to collect the great appreciation of capital gains since early 1980s. We also find that the expected housing demand is inelastic with respect to housing price. This implied that the housing total expenditure will increase when housing price increases and will reduce the efficiency of social resource.