東亞雁行理論與兩岸經濟發展

East Asian flying geese paradigm and cross-strait economic development

雁行理論是東亞區域經濟發展的詮釋模型，它以為以日本的資本與技術體系，可帶領東亞各國良好與有序之經濟發展，透過日本將國內競爭力已衰退之產業轉移至其他東亞國家，將可使這些國家由落後地區走上經濟成長之路，但日本經過「失落的十年」以及中國崛起已強烈衝擊其雁首地位。故本文研究是從兩岸經濟發展角度觀察其與雁行理論之關聯，並探討未來兩岸經濟發展之方向與前瞻。例如中國大陸有很大之服務業成長空間，但服務業是台灣強項。因此若以台灣之服務業互補大陸經濟，兩岸經濟必可另創經濟高峰。

The Goose Flying Theory is an interpretive model of economic development for Asian countries. It asserted that Japanese capital and technique could lead the economy of Asian countries with good development orderly; the Japan could bring those countries into the road of growth by way of exporting the industries which have lose the ability of competition domestically. However, the Japan have encountered the ＂decade of loser＂ and the China rise already threat her status of the head in the Gooses. Thus, this paper intend to study from the angle of the economic developing of Cross-Strait to observe their tie with the Goose Flying Theory. Additionally, it will also research the direction and prospective in the future. For example, there are many rooms for the China to develop the service industry which is an advantage for Taiwan. So, in case of the service industry of Taiwan to supplement the economy of China that may create a glorious economy for the Cross-Strait.