以「權力平衡」分析美國對烏克蘭的外交

An Analysis of US Foreign Policy toward Ukraine from the Perspective of Balance of Power

本文旨在討論美國對烏克蘭的外交政策。蘇聯在1991年解體之後，各加盟共和國紛紛宣布獨立，其中烏克蘭是除了俄羅斯共和國之外，前蘇聯加盟共和國中面積最大，人口最多的。同時，它的民族組成也最為複雜，因此美國如何面對這個新興的大國，就成了後冷戰時期影響美俄外交，以及地緣政治的重要變項。在國際關係理論中，「權力平衡」是一個經常被應用的重要理論。權力平衡可以用來形容外交政策，也可以用來形容國際局勢。本文認為，美國在面臨蘇聯解體後烏克蘭的情勢，可以用「權力平衡」的原則來檢視，在幾項重要的外交決策上，是否能使以「權力平衡」的政策出現在美烏和美俄的關係上？進而是否能維持該區域的權力平衡？首先，本文將介紹何謂權力平衡，權力平衡的各種型態，形成權力平衡的原因。接著分析烏克蘭的基本外交情勢與政策，回顧幾項重大的烏克蘭外交事務其過程和政權的更迭，以探討美國對烏的外交政策。

This article seeks to analyze US diplomatic policy toward Ukraine through the conception of ＂balance of power＂ in realism. Almost all the geopolitical actors are applying policies based on this principle of ＂balance of power.＂ The paper argues that the US policy successes in encouraging Ukraine to abandon its nuclear weapons inherited from the Soviet Union, then assure the balance of power among existing nuclear powers. However, after reviewing the US measures and resources to develop a package of additional assistance to the government of Ukraine in the near term, this paper argues that US failed to obey the principles of ＂balance of power＂, assists Ukraine to join the NATO and prevent Russia's military intervention in Ukraine, which has endangered the promise of Ukraine's democratic transition. Moreover, Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula was unlawfully annexed by referendum arranged by pro- Russian separatists backed by Russia in 2014. In fact, the United States doesn't marshal a full package of measures aimed at demonstrating the force of U.S. resolve in the face of unprovoked military intervention and threats. Therefore, Russia now can implement this policy and claim exclusive interest in the region again; the ＂balance of power＂ is favored by Moscow in this region.